Tuesday, December 8, 2009

prospects 30-21

Today, I have another group of prospects, but first I want to say something:

HAPPY BIRTHDAY SWEETIE!!!!! Today, December 9th, is my fiancé Allison's birthday. If you know her, make sure you wish her a happy birthday. We will live 1667 miles apart for awhile and it’s going to be difficult.... but, it gives me more blogging time! Serious, I love you and miss you. I will see you soon!

Anyway, I posted my Twins prospects 50-41 and 40-31 the past couple of days. Today, I will tackle the next 10. The formula for how I came upon this top 50 is included below:

For hitters I used OPS as my control. This is the formula I used: OPS +.025 per level above GCL +/- .025 for every year above or below age 22 by August 2009 + .025 for CF/SS/C + .025 for base stealers. I also perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

For pitchers I used WHIP as my control. This is the formula I used: WHIP -.05 per level above GCL +/- .05 for every year above or below 22 by August 2009 -.2 for starters. I also favored those with high K/9 rates and gave a break to those with higher BABIP (batting average of balls in play), because they may have been unlucky. I perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

.30. Ramon Santana Infield 6/20/1986.
He was signed in 2004 out of La Romana, Venezuela. He batted .296/.384/.453 for Beloit. He had good numbers, but was not very young for the level. He will have to show he can sustain a .800 OPS at the next level to continue to be a prospect. Otherwise he is a utility infielder at best.

29. Matthew Williams Relief Pitcher 2/28/1987.
He was signed in 2004 from Camden, Australia. He went 4-2 with a 2.77 ERA in 48 appearances/68.1 innings in 2 levels of A ball while giving up 62 hits, striking out 70 and walking 19. He could be a solid reliever some day.

28. Liam Hendriks Starting Pitcher 2/10/1989.
He was signed in 2007 from Perth, Australia. He missed all of the 2008 season. He went 5-5 with a 3.55 ERA in 14 starts/83.2 innings between Elizabethtown and Beloit while giving up 92 hits, striking out 75 and walking 19. If he can improve upon his average given up (his BABIP was a little high, suggesting he was a little unlucky) and he keeps his walk rate down, he has a chance to be a middle rotation starter someday.

27. Michael McCardell Starting Pitcher 4/13/1985.
He was a Twins 6th round draft pick in 2007 out of Kutztown University in Pennsylvania. He went 14-8 with a 3.98 ERA in 26 starts/142.1 innings between Fort Myers and New Britain while giving up 143 hits, striking out 118 and walking 32. Decent starter prospect.

26. Jeff Manship Starting Pitcher 1/16/1985.
He was a Twins 14th round draft pick in 2006 out of Notre Dame. He went 10-6 with a 3.86 ERA in 21 starts/126 innings between New Britain and Rochester while giving up 125 hits, striking out 75 and walking 37. He made his major league debut going 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA in some starting and relief work. He was not quite ready for the majors but should be in the next year. He profiles as a backend of the rotation starter or middle reliever.

25. Oswaldo Arcia Outfielder 5/9/1991
He was signed in 2007 from Anaco, Venezuela. He batted .275/.337/.455 for the Gulf Coast Twins with 8 steals and no caught stealing. He has a long way to go but is very young. If he can improve on these numbers going further he will be a legitimate prospect. I look forward to seeing how he will do at a higher level.

24. Brian Dinkelman Second Base 11/10/1983
He was a Twins 8th round draft pick in 2006 out of McKendree College in Illinois. He batted .296/.383/.440 for New Britain. He was a doubles machine in 2009 with 38 in 459 ABs. He isn't that young, but given the lack of depth at the second base position, he should be in the mix to be the Twins second baseman. However, since he was not protected on the 40 man roster, he could be picked up by a team with limited infield options.

23. Brock Peterson First Base 11/20/1983.
He was a Twins 49th round draft pick in 2002 out of W.F. West H.S. in Washington. He batted .304/.376/.458 for Rochester. He has been a solid minor leaguer for the Twins, but is a current minor league free agent. After having a decent year in Rochester, it would have been nice for him to get a September call up. I hope he comes back as backup insurance for Justin Morneau but he will probably sign elsewhere.

22. Anthony Swarzak Starting Pitcher 9/10/1985.
He was a Twins 2nd round draft pick in 2004 out of Fort Lauderdale, Florida. He went 4-5 with a 3.28 ERA in 13 starts/79.2 innings for Rochester while giving up 79 hits, striking out 45 and walking 21. He made his major league debut going 3-7 with a 6.25 ERA. His best start was June 13th were he went 7 innings and gave up 0 runs in Chicago vs. the Cubs. I was in the bleachers for this game and it was my best experience ever at the ballpark. In fact, I had too much fun, partying with the many Twins/Cubs/misc. fans that I met. Anyway....He was not ready for the majors, but he should be one of many in the mix for the 5th starter spot. He could be trade bait. He could improve his stock by improving his strikeout rate a little bit.

21. Ben Revere Center Field 5/3/1988.
He was a Twins 1st round draft pick in 2007 out of Lexington (KY) Catholic High School. He batted .311/.372/.369 for Fort Myers with 40 stolen bases in 53 attempts. He really lost his power in the jump to Fort Myers (it is less of a hitter’s league). It could have been an aberration or a real problem. He also does not have a great arm in centerfield and there are some rumors he may eventually move to second base. Many prospect lists have him in the top 3, 5 or certainly 10 Twins prospects. I had him at #7 at the end of September. He remains a good prospect and profiles as a good leadoff hitter some day, but he'll need a little more gap power, especially if he is moved from center.

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