Tuesday, December 15, 2009

prospects 10-1

Thanks to Seth of www.SethSpeaks.net for having me on his show at www.BlogTalkRadio.com/SethSpeaks tonight, to speak about this blog post. Check his blog and podcasts out if you have not already!

Finally, the prospect list will finish..... Until I rationalize some that didn't make the list. Before I start the list I will mention some notables that didn't make it. Most of the 2009 draft picks didn't have enough or any stats to qualify under this formula. Kyle Gibson, Billy Bullock, Matt Bashore, and Ben Tootle would make my Top 50, Gibson my top 10. 2009 Free agent signee's: Miguel Sano (Jean) would make my top 10 and Max Kepler would make my top 50. Guys like Carlos Gutierrez, Loek Van Mil, and Steve Tolleson would also make my subjective top 50. A guy like Trevor Plouffe, I'm not so sure. He is still rather young, but his numbers are really very good. I will do a quick subjective list mostly using these numbers in the future.
Today, we finish up with the top 10 prospects. If you are catching up, I did 50-41, 40-31, 30-21, & 20-11 already.

The formula for how I came upon this top 50 is included below:

For hitters I used OPS as my control. This is the formula I used: OPS +.025 per level above GCL +/- .025 for every year above or below age 22 by August 2009 + .025 for CF/SS/C + .025 for base stealers. I also perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

For pitchers I used WHIP as my control. This is the formula I used: WHIP -.05 per level above GCL +/- .05 for every year above or below 22 by August 2009 -.2 for starters. I also favored those with high K/9 rates and gave a break to those with higher BABIP (batting average of balls in play), because they may have been unlucky. I perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

10. Andrei Lobanov Lefty Reliever 1/25/1990.

He was signed in 2007 out of Moscow, Russia. He went 2-1 with a .82 ERA in 15 appearance/22 innings for the Gulf Coast Twins, giving up 14 hits while striking out 35 and walking 1!!!!!. Such gaudy numbers should come back to the pack as he faces tougher competition. Amid reports that his fastball only hits the mid 80s, it can be expected that his numbers will probably off. He has had no problems so far and as a prospect, he has to be up there until it is proven otherwise.

9. Danny Valencia Third Base 9/19/1984.
He was a Twins 19th round draft pick in 2006 out of the University of Miami. He batted .285/.337/.466 between New Britain and Rochester. He is considered one of the most MLB ready Twins prospects, however, there seems to be a major divide on how ready he really is. I have heard reports that some in the organization think he can play in the MLB right now and some saying he won't be ready until 2011. His numbers fell off in the last month in Rochester and he had some trouble with his defense. I have seen him play 3-4 times in AA and AAA. I saw a guy who, in my mind, was very close to MLB caliber. The team is going to search for a short term fix at third, but they might be better served just handing the job to Valencia.

8. Tom Stuifbergen Starter 9/26/1988.
He was signed in 2006 out of Breda, Netherlands. He went 5-2 with a 3.28 ERA in 13 starts/79.2 innings for Elizabethtown, giving up 79 hits while striking out 69 and walking 6. Seriously 6!!!!! He also started against the Dominican Republic in the 2009 World Baseball Classic. He went 4 innings, striking out 3 and giving up no runs in a win. He missed all of the 2008 season but has shown that he has a very high ceiling. You don't just shut the Dominican Republic all stars out without having some stones! I'm looking forward to seeing how his career plays out. As an aside, I sent him this profile and he approved it. :)

7. Bradley Tippett Starter 2/11/1988.
He was signed in 2006 out of Sidney, Australia. He went 9-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 25 appearances/24 starts/146 innings for Beloit, giving up 131 hits while striking out 107 and walking 25. He doesn't throw very hard, reports are a fastball in the high 80s, but has great control. If he can continue to strike out a fair amount of hitters and keep the hits under one per inning he has to be considered one of the better Twins starter prospects.

6. Alex Burnett Relief Pitcher 7/26/1987.
He was a Twins 12th round draft pick in 2005 out of Ocean View High School in Huntington Beach, California. He went 3-3 with a 1.85 ERA in 58 appearances/78 innings between Fort Myers and New Britain, giving up 50 hits while striking out 78 and walking 26. He was on the path to being an ordinary starter, but was switched to relief for the 2009 season. He is now the Twins top relief prospect going into the 2010 season. Smart move by the Twins brass.

5. Angel Morales Center Fielder/OF 11/24/1989.
He was a Twins 3rd round draft pick in 2007 out of Puerto Rico Baseball Academy High School. He batted .266/.329/.455 for Beloit with 19 stolen bases in 25 attempts. He started the year really slow, after having a monster year in Elizabethtown in 2008, but came on later in the season. He has a rare combination of speed and power, but has some work left in his game. He needs to continue to reduce his strikeout rate. I look for him to have a big year in 2010. He is the Twins prospect I am most excited to see play.

4. Joe Benson Outfield 3/5/1988.
He was a Twins 2nd round draft pick in 2006 out of Joliet Catholic Academy in Joliet, Illinois. He batted .285/.414/.403 for Fort Myers with 14 stolen bases in 21 attempts. He's got speed and he takes walks. He is developing into a prototypical leadoff or #2 hitter. He's another of many high-end outfield prospects in the Twins organization.

3. Adrian Salcedo Starter 4/24/1991.
He was signed in 2007 out of Moca, Dominican Republic. He went 3-2 with a 1.46 ERA in 11 appearances/10 starts/61.2 innings for the Gulf Coast Twins, giving up 60 hits while striking out 58 and walking just 3. 3!!!!!! He also was a little unlucky, giving up a .334 BABIP and a 64% left on base rate. An 18 year old that only walks one guy per 20 innings is the Twins organization's dream. He also gets more than twice as many groundouts as fly outs. I don't know alot about his stuff or his makeup, but he has great raw numbers so far.

2. Wilson Ramos Catcher 8/10/1987.
He was signed in 2004 out of Valencia, Venezuela. He batted .317/.341/.454 for New Britain. He is also a good defensive catcher, throwing out 41% of would be base stealers last season. I think he is ready to play in the majors right now. Joe Mauer is blocking him and if Joe agrees to an extension, Ramos will most likely be traded. Wilson must sense he is about to make it to the majors, he is batting .352/.418/.598 in winter ball. Those are Mauer-like numbers. He has been slightly injury-prone and he also doesn't walk very much. I have seen him play a couple times in AA and he was impressive. I am looking forward to seeing him play in the majors really soon.

1. Josmil Pinto Designated Hitter/Catcher 3/31/1989.
He was signed in 2006 out of San Joaquin, Venezuela. He batted .332/.387/.610 for Elizabethtown. He threw out 46% of would be stealers, but is not otherwise known as a great defensive catcher. He may be best as a DH. His year in E-town was off the charts offensively and he is still pretty young, but Angel Morales had an even better year in E-town the year before, but struggled in Beloit in 2009. It will be interesting to see how his offense translates at the higher levels and if he stays at catcher. He has alot of power and doesn't strike out that much. The organization will have a home for his bat, position be damned.

I don't know if it is a good thing or not, but only 1 prospect out of this top 50 was traded from another organization.


  1. Great list, with Josmil Pinto as number 1 :) I still think that Pedro Guerra should be in the top 10, but he still has not set a foot in the US. Maybe this year he will dominate the GCL and people will start talking about him like Pinto. The interesting thing is that the Twins probably have the greatest depth of talent in the Catcher position in the minors...

  2. yeah, i didn't use DSL numbers this time around, other than past numbers as a backup. Guys coming up from DSL look really good. Someone needs to dig into those numbers more.

  3. Good job Shawn! Enjoyed following the updates - TFelton