I'd like to start today by thanking not only my readers, but also the Twins blog community. Many of the blogs I follow are on the left of my postings, check them out if you haven't already. Unless you have come to this blog because you know me personally, you've probably read most of them already. I'd like to thank those that have included me on their blog roll as well. I'd especially like to thank Topper Anton. Check out Topper Anton's blog "Curve for a Strike". He recently did a post on me here. The Twins blog communtiy has alot of great voices, check them all out.
Today, we will do the prospects 20-11. If you are catching up, I did 50-41, 40-31, and 30-21 already.
The formula for how I came upon this top 50 is included below:
For hitters I used OPS as my control. This is the formula I used: OPS +.025 per level above GCL +/- .025 for every year above or below age 22 by August 2009 + .025 for CF/SS/C + .025 for base stealers. I also perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.
For pitchers I used WHIP as my control. This is the formula I used: WHIP -.05 per level above GCL +/- .05 for every year above or below 22 by August 2009 -.2 for starters. I also favored those with high K/9 rates and gave a break to those with higher BABIP (batting average of balls in play), because they may have been unlucky. I perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.
20. Tyler Robertson Left-handed Starter 12/23/1987.
He was a Twins 3rd round draft pick in 2006 out of Belle Vista High School in Fair Oaks, California. He went 8-8 with a 3.33 ERA in 26 starts/143.1 innings for Fort Myers, giving up 139 hits while striking out 103 and walking 51. He profiles as a backend starter, but he can improve that profile by improving his walk rate.
19. Deolis Guerra Starter 4/17/1989.
He was acquired by the Twins in 2008 as part of the Johann Santana trade. He went 12-11 with a 4.89 ERA in 28 appearances/26 starts/149 innings between Fort Myers and New Britain, giving up 157 hits while striking out 106 and walking 42. He was the key prospect in the Santana trade, but has been very ordinary since he came to the Twins. His delivery was changed in 2008 and he is still very young. I have seen him in person; he has a nice breaking pitch and change up. If he could get his fastball velocity closer to 95 again, he could still be an ace someday. 2010 will be a big year for him.
18. Rob Delaney Reliever 9/8/1984.
He was signed in 2006 out of St. John's University. He went 8-4 with a 3.44 ERA in 62 appearances/83.2 innings between New Britain and Rochester, giving up 75 hits while striking out 78 and walking 21. He is one of the Twins top reliever prospects. He has a similar profile and similar upside to Anthony Slama. What ranks him higher than Slama (#30) on this list is the lower amount of walks. Both have chances of being decent or better major leaguers. Slama has more dominant stuff, but Delaney walks less batters.
17. Steven Hirschfeld Starter/Reliever 9/8/1985.
He was a Twins 9th round draft pick in 2007 out of San Diego St. He went 7-7 with a 2.23 ERA in 32 appearances/17 starts/117 innings for Fort Myers, giving up 93 hits while striking out 86 and walking 31. He starts and relieves. He does well in either role. He doesn't give up a ton of hits or walk many guys. Whether he is used as a starter or reliever, in his probable start AA, will be the key to his future.
16. Blayne Weller Starter 1/30/1990.
He was a Twins 14th round draft pick in 2008 out of Key West High School. He went 5-1 with a 1.58 ERA in 11 appearances/10 starts/57 innings pitched for the Gulf Coast Twins, giving up 46 hits while striking out 49 with 8 walks. He has excellent numbers early in his professional career.
15. Aaron Hicks Centerfield 10/2/1989.
He was a Twins 1st round draft pick in 2008 out of Wilson High School in Long Beach California. He went .251/.535/.382 with 10 stolen bases out of 18 tries for Beloit. He is considered by most as the Twins #1 prospect. I'd rank him in the top 5 for sure if I was just using potential, but he did not have a great year in 2009. He has all of the potential in the world and I expect a better year in 2010.
14. Rene Tosoni Outfield 6/2/1986.
He was a Twins 36th round draft pick in 2005 out of Toronto, Canada. He went .271/.360/.454 for New Britain. He found some HR power in 2009, vaulting him up the prospect rankings. I attended 4 or 5 of his games in 2009; he was usually the best player on the field for New Britain. He has a decent shot of a September call up in 2010. He could also get called up if there is a serious injury or lack of productivity by one of the outfielders. Long term, he doesn't profile as better than the 3 current Twins outfielders. He also doesn't have as much upside as some of the outfielders behind him. Most of his major league career would probably be in another organization.
13. B.J. Hermsen Starter 12/1/1989.
He was a Twins 6th round draft pick in 2008 out of Masonville, Iowa. He went 6-2 with a 1.35 ERA in 10 starts/53.1 innings pitched for the Gulf Coast Twins, giving up 32 hits while striking out 42 with 4 walks. 4!!!!! His WHIP was .68!!!!! If he can continue to pitch anywhere close to this well as he moves up, he will be a star.
12. Chris Parmelee First Base/Outfield 2/24/1988.
He was a Twins 1st round draft pick in 2006 out of Chino Hills high school (CA). He batted .258/.359/.441 for Fort Myers. He has good power and a good walk rate. His prospect has slipped a little due to injury, but is still one of the Twins better power prospects.
11. David Bromberg Starter 9/14/1987.
He was a Twins 32nd round draft pick in 2005. He went 13-4 with a 2.70 ERA in 27 appearances/26 starts/153.1 innings pitched for Fort Myers, giving up 125 hits while striking out 148 with 63 walks. He was the Twins minor league pitcher of the year in 2009. He had a great year and is one of the Twins top starter prospects, but he needs to walk a few less guys to be a top of the rotation starter.
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