Minor League Twins - Kane Holbrooks & Dakota Watts

This originally appeared as a "Minor League Musing" at TwinsTarget. Please check out my post there on Oswaldo Arcia. All minor league posts here, will be posted there first. Please click the link on the right frequently or just check out my posts after reading Andrew's!

In the world of social media, one has an opportunity to connect to people much easier than in the past. Famous people, semi-famous people, even Twins minor league players. I have been Kane Holbrooks "friend" on Facebook for some time. He once interjected on a Facebook post I had written: "I think u forgot to mention that Kane holbrooks is throwing 99 not to mention just overall sexy" On Sept 2, he posted on his page: "Everybody dakota watts hit 99 tonight. I will hear about this for at least 2 months. Until he hits 100. Then I'm removing his arm from his body." When he & Dakota Watts got promoted to New Britain the next day, I wrote: "Congrats on the promotion, who will throw harder at New Britain? Dakota or you?" Kane responded with "Haha come on you know I throw harder than his little pansy ass".

Kane seems like a funny guy and seems to have a friendly competition with Dakota. Without knowing either of them personally, they seem to have a lot in common. They were both picked in the later in the 2009 draft, they are both tall right-handers & both born in 1987. Could they both be Minnesota Twins someday?

Holbrooks was selected in the 21st round of the draft out of Texas State. He started slow in 2009, compiling a 5.04 ERA on 25 innings at rookie Elizabethtown. He has been great in 2010. He went 5-3 with 9 saves and a 1.67 ERA in Beloit. Pitching mostly in relief, he had 71 strikeouts and 13 walks in 54 innings. He made the transition to starter and was promoted to Fort Myers in mid July. He was 3-3 with a 2.27 ERA with 36 Ks and 15 walks in 43.2 innings. As he has stated above, he throws hard. He also has a good slider and changeup.

Watts was selected in the 16th round of the draft out of Cal State Stanislaus. He had a 4.60 ERA in 29.1 innings at 3 levels in 2009. He also had a great year in 2010. He went 2-1 with 2 saves and a 2.31 ERA with Beloit. He had 55 strikeouts and 30 walks in 46.2 innings. He was promoted to Fort Myers a couple days before Holbrooks and went 4-2 with 6 saves and a 3.19 ERA. He struck out 29 and walked 12 in 31 innings. He is another guy who throws hard and has a good slider.

Both pitchers had breakout years in the Twins system, spending the whole year together at 3 levels. Both have great stuff. Both guys will probably start the season back in Fort Myers and could be on the fast track to the major leagues. Both could be premium relievers or Holbrooks could start. Watts could close out those starts. It will be interesting to watch the careers of these two "Twins" as they make their unexpected rise up prospect lists. For now, they'll have to settle for being Fort Myers "Twins" or New Britain "Twins", but someday it would be great if they were both Minnesota Twins.

This Twins losing streak, no big deal!

As the Twins slog through their post-clinch losing streak, the fan base is getting a little (a lot) upset. Reactions are ranging from general grumbling day-to-day to the more specific rips on "Fat" Gardy ruining the team. So, what is going on here? Does this blow it for the Twins in the playoffs? Please! As I said early in the year, There is still nothing wrong with the Twins!

I'm not worried!

In 1987, the Twins lost all 5 games after they clinched. They managed to win the World Series. The 2000 Yankees went 3-15 after they clinched. They won 3 rounds of playoffs including the World Series 4 games to 1. These are two examples of teams that have been fine.The Twins are 1-5 since they clinched, but their probable first round opponent, the Yankees, have only gone 2-5 in that same time period.

The Twins have been great at home this year going 52-25 and on the road, they end this night 40-40. The 5 games in a row they have lost have all been on the road.

The Twins haven't had their best position players. Mauer and Thome haven't played in one game since the team clinched, due to some nagging injuries. They are my MVP and runner up for the 2010 season. In place of Mauer, the Twins have had 4 games of Jose Morales and his .188/.282/.219 line and 2 games of Drew Butera and his .189/.232/.289 line. With Thome out of the lineup, the opportunity to play has been given to the monster sized bats of Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, Alexi Casilla, Ben Revere and Jason Repko. Useful parts, but not the kind of guys that a fan would want too many of in the lineup. With J.J. Hardy also missing 5 of the 6 games, the Twins have had at least 3 of these guys in every starting lineup. In the last 6 games, the team has still managed 26 runs, while only winning 1.

The pitching has been even worse! Friday, Liriano was fine until he got sick after 3 innings. He should be ok. Jeff Manship and Alex Burnett gave up 8 of the 10 runs. Neither pitcher will be anywhere near the post-season roster. Saturday, Carl Pavano was awful, but he hadn't pitched in 8 days and should be sharper next time around. One start doesn't worry me. He gave up 7 runs in 4 innings. Glen Perkins gave up 2 runs in .2 innings. He's another guy who won't be on the post-season roster. Brian Duensing wasn't terribly sharp Sunday, but he wasn't too bad. Last night, Kevin Slowey was brutal, giving up 6 in 1.2 innings. He probably won't make the post-season roster, surely not as a starter. Manship gave up 3 more runs. Randy Flores, another guy who won't sniff the post-season, gave up a run in .2 innings. Finally we get to tonight. The pencilled in Game 4 starter, Nick Blackburn, gave up 8 runs in 4.1 innings. This is Blackburn's first hideous start since before he was sent down to the minors. Scott Baker has a great opportunity tomorrow. A good start would bump Blackburn out of a starting role. Baker is the better pitcher overall, so I am hoping Baker turns it around. The Twins were also blessed with 2.2 innings and 2 runs from Perkins tonight.

So, basically, the Twins have been crap lately! They've lost 5 in a row. Their hitting has been inconsistent, their defense has been lousy and their pitching has been crap! The good news is, a lot of the players that have been failing the last 5 games, will see little or no action in the post-season.

I look for the Twins to finish up strong, but even if they don't, they will have as good a shot of winning the world series as they had last week!

Your 2010 MVP

With the season winding down, and the Twins getting ready to start their 6th post-season since 2002, it's time to award the players that have made that possible.


So, who is the team MVP? It was harder to pick than in most seasons, because there has been no single, dominant player. With the Twins fighting for the best record in the majors, they have needed many players to step up!


Please check out links to many other MVP posts at SethSpeaks.net. 


8.) Delmon Young has had a real nice breakout season. He has been worth a WAR of 1.8. His bat carried the team in July and his overall numbers are an improved .298/.332/.482. If his defense were better, he'd be one of the best overall players on the team.


7.) Danny Valencia should get votes for rookie of the year. He has been worth a WAR of 2.9. His bat has been great, particularly at home. His power has really come around as well, hitting 2 HRs Saturday. He was left in AAA to start the season to work on his defense and was only supposed to be a brief call up. Once he reached the lineup, his bat (.331/.372/.481) and glove insured that he would stay. He will be in that spot the next 5 years.


6.) Orlando Hudson has been a good find for the Twins. He has been worth a WAR of 3.0. His .268/.336/.371 is down over past seasons, but his defense has been much better this year than the last 4. His .707 OPS in the 2 hole and at 2nd base is still better than what the Twins have sent out there the last several years. A decent player at a premium position.


5.) Carl Pavano has been the most consistent starter for the Twins all season. He has a 3.83 ERA with a 4.08/4.02 FIP/xFIP and has been able to record 17 wins. He has been worth a WAR of 2.9.


4.) Francisco Liriano has been nearly ace-like this season. There could be an argument to rank him #1 on this list. His numbers have been that outstanding. His 6.2 WAR is highest on the team. His ERA is 3.48 but is probably inflated due to a high .342 BABIP. His 2.50/3.08 FIP/xFIP are among the best in the league. He does occasionally lose focus in games but for the most part has been almost as good as he was in 2006.


3.) Justin Morneau would have been my team MVP on July 7th when he got hurt. He'd have still been the team MVP August 7th or even September 7th. The fact that he hasn't played since July 7th bumps him to 3rd. His 5.3 WAR is the best for any position player on the team and he had the highest position player WAR in the AL at the time of his injury. The Twins have taken off since he has gotten hurt, but may have been in too deep a hole to come back weren't it for Justin carrying the team. With 81 games, Morneau's .345/.437/.618 were worth 18 HRs and 25 doubles. It's sad he wasn't able to complete the season and help in the playoffs. As good as the Twins have been, they still could use their best player. He will be missed in the playoffs.


2.) Jim Thome has sure been worth that $1.5 million plus incentives. His .280/.412/.631 have been huge. He has really stepped up as a part-time player, especially since Morneau went down. His 3.6 WAR is his best in 3 years. He has not only been very helpful to the Twins playoff push but has provided many of their most moments in 2010. I'll remember the walk-off against the White Sox or the time he hit the flag-pole for the rest of my life. Almost every one of his 26(25 since that one in Cleveland was called a double) HRs has been appointment TV. Hopefully Big Jimmers is back to collect number 600 next year. I've already drawn up the plan.

1.) Joe Mauer was the MVP of the AL in 2009 with a ridiculous .365/.444/.587. In 2010 he'll have to settle for Twins MVP. There have been a ton of Twins that have stepped up this year. There are the other 7 guys on this list, but there have been many more. Michel Cuddyer and Brian Duensing have helped the Twins with their flexibility. Jason Kubel has times of incredible clutchiness. Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch and even 5.2 innings of Matt Fox have been very important to the Central division champs. Mauer, however, has been the best player the whole season. He has a .331/.407/.473 line for the season. This production at the catcher position has been worth a WAR of 5.2. After starting the year slow, he really got it going after Morneau went down. The 2010 Twins could win the World Series and many guys deserve credit. Mauer is their MVP.

Estarlin De Los Santos: The 40-Man Pariah

This was originally posted at www.TwinsTarget.com/minors. That is the place to check out all of my minor league content. Click the "Minor League Musings" icon on the top right of the blog and check it out!

Whenever a potential move needs to be  made by the Twins, the name Estarlin De Los Santos finds its way to the top of the blogosphere's drop list. If Anthony Slama needs to be added to the 40 man, the Twins can take off De Los Santos. If Justin Morneau comes off the 60 day DL, the Twins can DFA (designate for assignment) De Los Santos, etc.... So who is Estarlin De Los Santos? Is he so terrible?

De Los Santos was signed by the Twins in 2005 out of Villa Mella, Dominican Republic. He was added to the 40 man roster after the 2009 season. Coming into his 23rd year, this surprised a lot of fans. As a 22 year old, he hit .290/.330/.397 in High A Fort Myers with 11 stolen bases in 15 attempts. He had decent numbers at Fort Myers and is very good defensively but by no means, was he an overwhelming prospect.

One thing in De Los Santos favor is there were only 5 other players to play SS on the Twins 40 man. Trevor Plouffe, Alexi Casilla and J.J. Hardy were the only other SS, with Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto also able to play short. In fact, the system is nearly bereft of shortstops. It seemed like an odd choice at the time, but De Los Santos was the next best middle infielder in need of protecting. With his age, speed, a little bat and good defense at a premium position, it shouldn't have come as such a shock that he'd be added to the 40 man roster. His numbers as a 23 year old in A+ ball are similar to those of Matt Tolbert put up at the same age and level.

In 2010, De Los Santos has been slightly disappointing. After hitting .274/.340/.346 with 13 steals in 15 attempts in a return to Fort Myers, he was promoted to AA New Britain. Once promoted, he struggled big time. He hit only .177/.249/.245 with 6 steals in 14 attempts. When fans see those numbers, it makes sense that they'd think De Los Santos would be dropped off the roster, the first time the Twins need a roster spot. But it hasn't happened.

I think there is a real chance De Los Santos isn't dropped from the roster after the season. Hardy will probably be retained by the club for 2011, but second baseman Orlando Hudson will probably not be retained. Taking Hudson's spot will be either Alexi Casilla or Trevor Plouffe with Matt Tolbert also available. Nick Punto will most likely be let go due to a $5 million club option, injury and declining skill.

There are not a lot of options to add to the roster in the system at SS or even 2b. James Beresford might be one SS to add to the roster. He will only be 22. He hit .295/.347/.360 and stole 14 bases in 28 attempts in his second year at low A ball Beloit. He is 2 years younger than De Los Santos, but also 2 levels behind him in the system. The Twins could also choose to add Steve Singleton to the 40 man roster, though they didn't protect him following 2009. Singleton had a .267/.325/.410 for New Britain, playing mostly 2b. These numbers are similar to his 2009 numbers. He is a year and a half older than De Los Santos and has a little bit better bat, but will most likely go unclaimed again.

Estarlin De Los Santos is not a great prospect by any means. Soon to be 24, he is not terribly young anymore. He would return to AA next season and will profile as the next closest shortstop prospect to the major leagues. While no one should be too disappointed if he is removed from the 40 man roster, no one should be too surprised if he is left on the roster. Should the Twins drop him and add Beresford or Singleton or both? Do they add Beresford and keep De Los Santos on the 40 man? Do they find depth elsewhere? Do they go into 2011 with only 5 middle infielders, including Luke Hughes on the 40 man? I'm guessing he has one more year to grow, before the Twins give up their protection of him. They could drop him and he may go unclaimed, but another team may need SS depth. I believe he stays on the 40 man roster. He will return as the 40 man pariah.

How does this Twins team stack up?

As the Twins draw near to a playoff berth, the naysayers are going to start coming out of the woodwork bashing Gardy and the team's post-season record. Since 2002, Gardy's teams have won 6 division championships but have gone 6-18 in the playoffs. They have lost 9 playoff games in a row. So, the Twins win in the regular season ,due to a soft schedule, but are no match in the post-season. It is my contention that they haven't been a strong team in the past and this year they are much stronger. I have examined all of the playoff years from 2002-2010 to prove this.

2002 Twins:
Lineup: 2002 < 2010
C AJ .300/.334/.439 < Mauer .331/.407/.473
1b Douggie .261/.365/.392 > Cuddyer .274/.339/.423
2b Rivas .256/.305/.392 < Hudson .273/.340/.377
SS Guzman .273/.292/.385 < Hardy .274/.324/.400
3b Koskie .267/.368/.447 = Valencia .335/.377/.470
RF Cuddyer .259/.311/.429 < Kubel .254/.329/.434
CF Hunter .289/.334/.524 > Span .266/.334/.353
LF Jones .300/.341/.511 >Young .297/.332/.482
DH Ortiz .272/.339/.500 < Thome .276/.408/.619

Bench 2002 > 2010                                                          
Kielty .291/.405/.484                                      Punto .274/.339/.423
Hocking .250/.310/.323                                  Casilla .265/.322/.382
LeCroy .260/.306/.448                                   Repko .214/.298/.342
Mohr .269/.325/.433                                     

Starters: 2002 < 2010
Radke 9-5 4.72 ERA 3.92/4.29 FIP/xFIP < Liriano 14-8 3.44 ERA 2.44/3.08 FIP/xFIP
Mays 4-8 5.38 ERA 4.92/4.73 FIP/xFIP < Pavano 17-11 3.60 ERA 3.92/4.00 FIP/xFIP
Reed 15-7 3.78 ERA 4.40/4.01 FIP/xFIP < Duensing 10-2 2.19 ERA 3.51/3.99 FIP/xFIP
Milton 13-9 4.84 ERA 3.95/4.13 FIP/xFIP > Blackburn 9-10 5.43 ERA 5.04/4.69 FIP/xFIP

Relievers: 2002 = 2010                                                        
Guardado 2.93 ERA 3.46/3.55 FIP/xFIP > Capps 2.61 ERA 3.28/3.95 FIP/xFIP  
Hawkins 2.13 ERA 2.76/3.23 FIP/xFIP            Fuentes 3.16 ERA 4.12/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Santana 8-6 2.99 ERA 2.66/3.35 FIP/xFIP      Crain 2.49 ERA 3.29/4.09 FIP/xFIP
Fiore 3.16 ERA 4.76/5.21 FIP/xFIP                 Rauch 3.27 ERA 3.06/4.26 FIP/xFIP
Lohse 13-8 4.23 ERa 4.77/4.69 FIP/xFIP        Mijares 2.63 ERA 3.71/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Romero 1.89 ERA 3.05/3.56 FIP/xFIP            Guerrier 3.46 ERA 4.52/4.80 FIP/xFIP
Jackson 3.27 ERA 4.02/4.65 FIP/xFIP             Baker 12-9 4.60 ERA 4.01/4.04 FIP/xFIP

The 2010 team is much better than the 2002 team. They are better at 5 positions, much better at catcher and DH and worse at 3 positions, much worse in center field. The top 3 starters are better than 2002. The bullpens are equal with 2002 having a stronger bench.

2003 Twins:
Lineup 2003 < 2010
C AJ .312/.360/.464 < Mauer .331/.407/.473
1b Douggie .300/.360/.464 > Cuddyer .274/.339/.423
2b Rivas .259/.308/.381 < Hudson .273/.340/.377
SS Guzman .268/.311/.365 < Hardy .274/.324/.400
3b Koskie .292/.393/.452 = Valencia .335/.377/.470
RF Jones .304/.333/.464 > Kubel .254/.329/.434
CF Hunter .250/.312/.451 > Span .266/.334/.353
LF Stewart .322/.384/.470 > Young .297/.332/.482
DH LeCroy .287/.342/.490 < Thome .276/.408/.619

Bench 2003 < 2010
Hocking .239/.291/.362         Punto .274/.339/.423                                
Ryan .393/.441/.754 68 PA   Casilla .265/.322/.382                                
Gomez .251/.279/.354           Repko .214/.298/.342

Ford .329/.402/.575 83 PA   

Starters: 2003 < 2010
Santana 12-3 3.07 ERA 3.24/3.57 FIP/xFIP < Liriano 14-8 3.44 ERA 2.44/3.08 FIP/xFIP
Radke 14-10 4.49 ERA 4.33/4.05 FIP/xFIP < Pavano 17-11 3.60 ERA 3.92/4.00 FIP/xFIP
Lohse 14-11 4.61 ERA 4.29/4.27 FIP/xFIP < Duensing 10-2 2.19 ERA 3.51/3.99 FIP/xFIP
                                                                        Blackburn 9-10 5.43 ERA 5.04/4.69 FIP/xFIP

Relievers: 2003 < 2010
Guardado 2.89 ERA 3.23/3.78 FIP/xFIP = Capps 2.61 ERA 3.28/3.95 FIP/xFIP
Hawkins 1.86 ERA 2.38/3.05 FIP/xFIP      Fuentes 3.16 ERA 4.12/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Rincon 3.68 ERA 3.79/4.42 FIP/xFIP         Crain 2.49 ERA 3.29/4.09 FIP/xFIP
Reed 6-12 5.07 ERa 4.76/4.68 FIP/xFIP    Rauch 3.27 ERA 3.06/4.26 FIP/xFIP
Romero 5.00 ERA 5.17/4.88 FIP/xFIP        Mijares 2.63 ERA 3.71/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Rogers 13-8 4.57 ERA 4.25/4.28 FIP/xFIP Baker 12-9 4.60 ERA 4.01/4.04 FIP/xFIP
Milton 2.65 ERA 3.91/4.71 FIP/xFIP

The 2010 team is much better than the 2003 team. They are better at 4 positions, much better at SS and DH and worse at 4 positions, much worse in center field. The top 3 starters, the bullpen and bench are also better than 2003.

2004 Twins:
Lineup: 2004 < 2010
C Blanco .206/.260/.368 < Mauer .331/.407/.473
1b Morneau .271/.340/.536 > Cuddyer .274/.339/.423
2b Cuddyer .263/.339/.440 < Hudson .273/.340/.377
SS Guzman .274/.309/.384 < Hardy .274/.324/.400
3b Koskie .251/.342/.495 < Valencia .335/.377/.470
RF Jones .254/.315/.427 < Kubel .254/.329/.434
CF Hunter .271/.330/.475 > Span .266/.334/.353
LF Stewart .304/.380/.447 < Young .297/.332/.482
DH Ford .299/.381/.446 < Thome .276/.408/.619

Bench: 2004 = 2010
Offerman .256/.363/.395  Punto .274/.339/.423
Rivas .256/.283/.432        Casilla .265/.322/.382
LeCroy .269/.321/.424     Repko .214/.298/.342
Kubel .300/.358/.433

Starters: 2004 > 2010
Santana 20-6 2.61 ERA 2.92/2.95 FIP/xFIP > Liriano 14-8 3.44 ERA 2.44/3.08 FIP/xFIP
Radke 11-8 3.48 ERA 3.55/3.87 FIP/xFIP > Pavano 17-11 3.60 ERA 3.92/4.00 FIP/xFIP
Silva 14-8 4.21 ERA 4.36/4.45 FIP/xFIP < Duensing 10-2 2.19 ERA 3.51/3.99 FIP/xFIP
                                                                    Blackburn 9-10 5.43 ERA 5.04/4.69 FIP/xFIP
Relievers: 2004 < 2010
Nathan 1.62 ERA 2.16/3.17 FIP/xFIP > Capps 2.61 ERA 3.28/3.95 FIP/xFIP
Rincon 2.63 ERA 2.50/2.89 FIP/xFIP        Fuentes 3.16 ERA 4.12/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Balfour 4.35 ERA 3.99/4.23 FIP/xFIP       Crain 2.49 ERA 3.29/4.09 FIP/xFIP
Romero 3.51 ERA 3.63/4.01 FIP/xFIP      Rauch 3.27 ERA 3.06/4.26 FIP/xFIP
Mulholland  5.18 ERA 4.79/4.54 FIP/xFIP Mijares 2.63 ERA 3.71/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Lohse 9-13 5.34 ERA 5.06/4.95 FIP/xFIP Baker 12-9 4.60 ERA 4.01/4.04 FIP/xFIP

The 2010 team is better than the 2004 team. Their lineup is much better in 2010. They are better at 7 positions, much better at catcher and DH and worse at 2 positions, much worse in center field. 2004 had a better #1 and #2 starter. The 2010 bullpen is stronger, other than closer, and the benches are about equal.

2006 Twins:
Lineup 2006 = 2010
C Mauer .347/.429/.507 > Mauer .331/.407/.473
1b Morneau .321/.375/.559 > Cuddyer .274/.339/.423
2b Castillo .296/.358/.370 < Hudson .273/.340/.377
SS Bartlett .309/.367/.393 > Hardy .274/.324/.400
3b Punto .290/.352/.373 < Valencia .335/.377/.470
RF Cuddyer .284/.362/.504 > Kubel .254/.329/.434
CF Hunter .278/.336/.490 > Span .266/.334/.353
LF White .246/.276/.365 < Young .297/.332/.482
DH Tyner .312/.345/.353 < Thome .276/.408/.619

Bench: 2006 < 2010
Ford .226/.287/.312         Punto .274/.339/.423
Rodriguez .235/.315/.322 Casilla .265/.322/.382
Nevin .190/.340/.286        Repko .214/.298/.342

Starters: 2006 < 2010
Santana 19-6 2.77 ERA 3.04/3.12 FIP/xFIP = Liriano 14-8 3.44 ERA 2.44/3.08 FIP/xFIP
Bonser 7-6 4.22 ERA 4.55/4.03 FIP/xFIP < Pavano 17-11 3.60 ERA 3.92/4.00 FIP/xFIP
Radke 12-9 4.32 ERA 4.66/4.55 FIP/xFIP < Duensing 10-2 2.19 ERA 3.51/3.99 FIP/xFIP
                                                                      Blackburn 9-10 5.43 ERA 5.04/4.69 FIP/xFIP


Relievers: 2006 > 2010
Nathan 1.58 ERA 1.68/2.35 FIP/xFIP > Capps 2.61 ERA 3.28/3.95 FIP/xFIP
Crain 3.52 ERA 3.38/3.40 FIP/xFIP       Fuentes 3.16 ERA 4.12/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Neshek 2.19 ERA 2.88/2.28 FIP/xFIP    Crain 2.49 ERA 3.29/4.09 FIP/xFIP
Reyes .89 ERA 2.87/2.80 FIP/xFIP         Rauch 3.27 ERA 3.06/4.26 FIP/xFIP
Rincon 2.91 ERA 2.84/3.59 FIP/xFIP      Mijares 2.63 ERA 3.71/4.58 FIP/xFIP
                                                                Baker 12-9 4.60 ERA 4.01/4.04 FIP/xFIP

The 2010 team is a little better than the 2006 team. The lineups are about equal. They are better at 4 positions, much better at 3b, LF and DH. They are worse at 5, much worse at 1b, RF and CF. 2010 has a better #2 and #3 starter, Liriano's 2010 numbers are close to Santana's Cy Young 06. Brad Radke as a 3rd starter was a shell of his former self and game 3 was his last ever start, due to injury. The 2006 bullpen was stronger at closer and overall, though less overall depth. 2010s bench is much stronger.

2009 Twins
Lineup: 2010 > 2009
C Mauer .365/.444/.587 > Mauer .331/.407/.473
1b Cuddyer .276/.342/.520 > Cuddyer .274/.339/.423
2b Punto .228/.337/.284 < Hudson .273/.340/.377
SS Cabrera .289/.313/.430 < Hardy .274/.324/.400
3b Tolbert .232/.303/.308 < Valencia .335/.377/.470
RF Kubel .300/.369/.539 > Kubel .254/.329/.434
CF Span .311/.392/.415 > Span .266/.334/.353
LF Young .284/.308/.425 < Young .297/.332/.482
DH Morales .311/.381/.361 < Thome .276/.408/.619

Bench: 2010 > 2009
Harris .261/.310/.362  Punto .274/.339/.423
Gomez .229/.287/.337 Casilla .265/.322/.382
Casilla .202/.280/.259  Repko .214/.298/.342

Starters: 2010 > 2009
Duensing 5-2 3.64 ERA 4.13/4.77 FIP/xFIP < Liriano 14-8 3.44 ERA 2.44/3.08 FIP/xFIP
Blackburn 11-11 4.03 ERA 4.37/4.56 FIP/xFIP < Pavano 17-11 3.60 ERA 3.92/4.00 FIP/xFIP
Pavano 14-12 5.10 ERA 4.00/3.96 FIP/xFIP < Duensing 10-2 2.19 ERA 3.51/3.99 FIP/xFIP
                                                                          Blackburn 9-10 5.43 ERA 5.04/4.69 FIP/xFIP

Relievers: 2010 > 2009
Nathan 2.10 ERA 2.88/3.00 FIP/xFIP > Capps 2.61 ERA 3.28/3.95 FIP/xFIP
Guerrier 2.36 ERA 4.35 FIP/4.31 xFIP   Fuentes 3.16 ERA 4.12/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Rauch 3.60 ERA 3.88/4.64 FIP/xFIP      Crain 2.49 ERA 3.29/4.09 FIP/xFIP
Mijares 2.34 ERA 4.01/4.43 FIP/xFIP    Rauch 3.27 ERA 3.06/4.26 FIP/xFIP
Mahay 4.29 ERA 5.56/4.90 FIP/xFIP        Mijares 2.63 ERA 3.71/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Liriano 5-13 5.80 ERA 4.87/4.55 FIP/xFIP   Baker 12-9 4.60 ERA 4.01/4.04 FIP/xFIP

The 2010 team is much better than the 2009 team. They are better at 5 positions, much better at 2b, 3b and DH and worse at 4, especially at catcher where Mauer hasn't lived up to his MVP 09 season. All of 2010s starters are better than 2009. The 2010 bullpen is stronger other than closer and the 2010 bench is better as well.

Looking at the numbers, this 2010 team is Gardenhire's best teams. Other than the 2006 team, no other Gardenhire team has been close to the talent on 2010's squad. The 2006 team was the only squad given a really good chance to win its first round series. Many analysts considered the 2006 team a world series contender. The 2006 team had better middle lineup and top relief core, however 2010's team has much better starting pitching and overall depth. The 2010 team would be able to outlast the 2006 team and would crush the others.

The 2010 team may not go anywhere in the playoffs but will be the best squad Gardenhire has brought to the post-season.

The Twins are on Fire!

Did you know? The Twins are 40-16 since the All-Star break.
The starters have gone 29-10 in that stretch. One of those a spot start by Glen Perkins.
The starters lead the league with a 2.26 ERA in 12 September starts.
Brian Fuentes has yet to give up a base runner.
Jesse Crain has been arguably the best reliever in the AL since June.
There is also Joe Mauer and Jim Thome.....
They've won 9 of their last 10.
They haven't lost by more than 2 runs in 19 games.
They have allowed the second fewest runs in the A.L.
They are 7 games ahead of Chicago with 18 to go.
They are 1.5 games behind the Yankees for the best record in all of baseball.
Their 48-23 home record is the best in the major leagues, the way they are playing, they will have home field advantage until the World Series.

Other than Justin Morneau, the team is now fully healthy.

There are no guarantees in the playoffs but, this Twins team is not like the others. This is a special team. With 18 games to go, fans should start enjoying it!

Minor League Musing - Getting to know Joe Benson

As of Saturday September 11th, I have taken over "minor league musings" at TwinsTarget.com. This is a great opportunity to garner more readership for my writing and this blog. It is also going to be fun to speak to a minor league focus two or more times a week. I'd like to thank Andrew Kneeland for the opportunity. I will still be blogging on this site, but most posts about the minor leagues will be posted over there. So, please check out TwinsTarget.com. There is a lot of great Twins content there. While you are there and check out "minor league musings". My latest post about Estarlin De Los Santos is posted. Joe Benson was my first post, enjoy.

With my first post, I will introduce you to my favorite Twins prospect, Joe Benson. He plays all outfield positions and is capable of playing a very good center field. The 22 year old was a Twins 2nd round draft pick in 2006 out of Joliet Catholic Academy in Joliet, Illinois. He is not as highly thought of in Twins prospect circles as Aaron Hicks, Ben Revere, or Angel Morales, but he should be. He is a similar, if more advanced player than Aaron Hicks and Angel Morales. Hicks most likely will walk a little more than Benson. He is the same age as Revere and has much more power and is a better fielder, if not as fast a runner.

In 2009, he batted .285/.414/.403 for Fort Myers with 14 stolen bases in 21 attempts. He ranked #4 overall in my Twins prospect list coming into 2010. At the time, I said "he is developing into a prototypical lead off or #2 hitter. He's another of many high-end outfield prospects in the Twins organization." Well in 2010, his power has taken off. The 6'2" 211 lb. Benson finally added power that his frame would suggest. Prior to 2010, Benson topped out at 5 HRs in a season. He had a .259/.343/.538 line with 27 HRs, 31 doubles and 8 triples for Fort Myers and New Britain. He also stole 19 bases in 28 tries. His .527 slugging percentage at New Britain ranked 5th in the Eastern League of players with 300 plus plate appearances. His .862 OPS ranked 11th of players with 300 plus PA. His 23 HRs ranked 4th in the league. He probably isn't a going to be a 1 or 2 hitter after-all, though he hits at the top of the order for New Britain.

I have seen him play 3 times this season. When he was named as one of seven Twins to make the Arizona Fall league, I posted a scouting report on the 7 players.

This was my scouting report on Benson:

I saw him in June and wrote this: He's 22 and LaVelle E. Neal thinks he'll arrive in 2012. For some reason, he was sent back to Fort Myers this year. I personally think he is a better player than Revere right now. He certainly looks to have more upside. He is almost as fast as Revere but also has power. He went 2-5 with a 2B and a walk on Wednesday and 1-4 with a HR in Thursday's game. He leads New Britain with 9 HRs. The bounce in power is great especially since he is considered more of a speed guy. He already has 13 HRs in 2010 between Fort Myers/New Britain. He's never had more than 5 HRs in a season. If Micheal Cuddyer were traded in the off-season, Benson may be better equipped then Revere to replace some of his offense by next season.


I also saw him in August: He went 0-5 and some of his swings were really hard. Carlos Gomez hard. He is certainly the best prospect in AA for the Twins currently, but he has some work to do. I love watching him in the field and he has legitimate power. He also might be wound to tight. He got mad a couple times during the game, tossing his helmet hard into the dugout and also on the field after just missing his pitch and flying out. The kind of reaction usually reserved for strikeouts. Benson has a ton of tools and potential that is starting to show. I hope he is able to keep his emotions in check and just enjoy the game a little more. He has enough ability to go a long way someday soon.

Benson is a 5 tool player that could be a future star for the Twins. He can hit, hit for power, steal a base, plays great defense and has a good arm. He is more than capable in center field but may eventually shift to a corner. When he is in the lineup with Ben Revere, Revere has played center. Benson has also improved his on-base skills in the last couple of seasons.

The one flaw in his game is his strikeout rate. Benson struck out 136 times in 519 plate appearances in 2010. His 115 Eastern League K's ranked 11th and his total of 136 would have placed him in 6th place for the league. That's a strikeout every 3.82 plate appearances. Many mention his strikeout rate as a reason to keep Benson in AA for another season and it may be a fair reaction. Give him more time to work on this flaw before promoting him to AAA or the majors. As a comparison, the Twins strikeout leader this year is Jason Kubel. He has 102 strikeouts in 515 plate appearances. Kubel never had more than 59 Ks in any minor league season. Benson's strikeouts are a problem. Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn never struck out that much in the minors.

Joe Benson will be added to the 40 man roster over the winter and will get a look in spring training before he gets sent back to AA. Between Arizona Fall league and his return to New Britain, Benson should be tasked with lowering his K rate. If he can do that, he will be ready to make an impact with the big league club as soon as mid-season. Guys like Aaron Hicks, Angel Morales and Ben Revere could be great players for the Twins, but Joe Benson is the most likely to do it first.