The Astros have a very nice stadium.... and not much else, join the Twins bandwagon

So, I got the opportunity to see the Astros play the Phillies on Friday. I work for the company that owns the Astros and got some free tickets. I looked at the lineup and stated, "if this game was played 10 times, the Phillies would win 8" I should have said the Phillies would win 11 out of 10. The game was a bloodbath. Carlos Lee was the only starter at his position that was better than the player the Phillies ran out there. Starter Bud Norris, a nice kid who signed the ball below, could not find the plate.

He can touch 94 on his fastball and has an 88 mph slider, but couldn't throw these pitches for strikes. If a guy can't throw strikes the Phillies lineup will kill him. He gave up 6 hits, 4 walks and 3 ERs through 2.2 innings. He managed to throw 82 pitches, only 44 for strike, and burned the a large part of my evening to get 8 outs. His night ended when he walked pitcher Happ. While Norris was brutal, Happ wasn't terribly sharp either, allowing 6 hits and 2 walks,while throwing 103 pitches in 5 innings. He didn't give up any runs, but he was very slow out there. This was probably the slowest moving game I've seen live.

The final score was 8-0 Phillies, but it seemed much worse. The Phillies offense sucked the life out of the stadium very quickly. The game-time was 3:17, but it seemed to take 3 days. The first 4 innings took about two hours. My boss's team is going to have a very long year.

Oh Well! The stadium is really nice, go check it out when you can, hopefully you will get a better game.

If you are an Astros fan, take a year off, join the Minnesota Twins bandwagon, we'd love to have you.

2010 Predictions

Well, the 2010 Season is upon us. It's prediction time: You have come to a Twins blog, so it should be no surprise at the LARGE amount of homer-ism picks. Oh Well! If there was ever a year to go homer, this is the year.




Hopefully I am a smart Homer.

AL East:                    AL Central:               AL West:
Boston        96-66     Minnesota  94-68      Los Angeles  87-75
New York  94-68*   Chicago      85-77     Texas            85-77
Tampa Bay 86-76     Detroit        80-82     Seattle           83-79
Baltimore    76-86     Cleveland    70-92     Oakland        73-89
Toronto      69-93     Kansas City 66-96
ALDS:
Boston over LA Angels 3-1
i think Boston is much deeper.
Minnesota over New York Yankees 3-2
New field, better line-up, home-field due to Wild Card status.

ALCS:
Minnesota over Boston 4-3
Boston has the better pitching but the Twins have the better lineup.

NL East:                    NL Central:               NL West:
Philadelphia  98-64    St. Louis     91-71    Colorado        92-70
Atlanta         85-77     Chicago     84-78    San Francisco  86-76*
Florida         82-80     Milwaukee 81-81    Los Angeles    80-82
New York   77-85     Cincinnati    79-83   Arizona           79-83
Washington  66-96     Pittsburgh   76-86    San Diego       63-99
                                  Houston      68-94
* Wild Card
NLDS:
Philadelphia over San Fransisco 3-0
Halladay beats Lincecum, then it's over.
Colorado over St. Louis 3-2
Colorado has the deeper lineup.

NLCS:
Philly over Colorado 4-0
Philadelphia is the class of the NL.

World Series:
Twins over Phillies 4-3
Twins use that all-star game home field advantage.
Homer-ism reigns supreme

Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
He earns well over his salary for another year. Bank it when he gets old!

Twins Top Pitcher: Kevin Slowey
Something like 18-12 3.30 ERA

Twins Best Rookie: Anthony Slama
If given the chance, he could close the second half of the season.

Twins Most Improved Player: Delmon Young
.310/.335/.470 with 25 SB would be a nice step forward. Maybe he'll walk someday.

Three Keys to Success for the Twins:
Liriano going from terrible to good. A under 4.00 ERA Liriano would go a long way. If he becomes great again, well that's just a bonus.
Slowey a full year healthy. He needs to pitch the full season in order to be 18-12 with that 3.30 ERA.
Slama coming up to seize the closer role. The team needs a closer. I hope it's Slama or Neshek.

Rest of the League Predictions

A.L. MVP: Joe Mauer
Considerations to: Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, Josh Beckett
N.L. MVP: Chase Utley
Considerations to: Troy Tulowitzki, Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez
A.L. Cy Young: Josh Beckett
Considerations to: Kevin Slowey, Zach Greinke, Felix Hernandez
N.L. Cy Young: Roy Halladay
Considerations to: Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum
A.L. Rookie of the Year: Brian Matusz
N.L. Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward
A.L. Breakout Player of the Year: Kevin Slowey
N.L. Breakout Player of the Year: Yovani Gallardo
A.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Fausto Carmona
N.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Tim Hudson

Those are my picks. What are yours?
Check out Josh's post: He is the father of the Twins blog series Predictions:

Heath Bell

I will be discussing the Twins tomorrow morning with DW the great: check it out here at 10 am: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/dwthegreat/2010/03/20/question-marks. Also check out his blog: http://twin-keys.blogspot.com/.

One of the primary topics in Twins Territory is the closer situation. If Joe Nathan can't go, and this weekend we will find out, who should be the Twins closer?

I think it should be this man:

OK, it's been a long time since he's been a B-Met, but I did live in Binghamton for 3+ years.

There are rumors out there that the Twins are interested in Heath Bell and the Padres would want Ben Revere, Aaron Hicks, or Angel Morales. These three gentleman are considered the future Twins OF. It seems unlikely that all three will make the majors with the Twins, but is Bell worth one of these players?

No!

I know I have said I want the Twins to trade for him, but not for Revere or Morales straight up. The Twins wouldn't consider trading Hicks.

Bell at 32 years old has been a very good reliever the last three years and a good closer in 09. He struck out 10.21/9 innings, had a 1.12 WHIP and 2.42 FIP in 2009. His numbers were really good for a closer, but not as good as Joe Nathan. Where Nathan was worth about 2 wins over replacement, Bell was worth about one. One win could be important however and I think the Twins should explore this deal.

Would the Padres take Glen Perkins/Alexi Casilla/Rene Tosoni for Bell? Probably not, they are selling high and they know the Twins are desperate.

The Twins best bet would be to trade Revere. To me, he has less upside than Morales and Hicks. He is fast and is a good contact hitter, but he probably will never develop power and has a weak throwing arm.

I would propose this trade of Bell, Drew Cumberland and cash for Revere and Perkins.

Drew Cumberland was the 46th pick in 2007. He had a .296/.393/.410 line with 19 steals in 22 attempts for Class A Fort Wayne. He is a SS/2b and is only 21 years old.

He would provide decent upside in the middle infield where the Twins are weak.

It would hurt to lose Revere, but to gain a decent, but slightly lesser prospect, plus Bell would be worth it.

Many are pining for Pat Neshek to be the closer. While I'd love to see this, he may not be fully ready to take on the role. Bringing in Bell for 2 years and letting him walk (perhaps receiving draft picks) would strengthen the entire bullpen. Neshek, Guerrier, and Rauch could all setup Bell and would make for a very strong bullpen.

If the Padres want the moon, this won't happen, but if they are willing to get creative, this could benefit the Twins now without a huge drop-off in their future.

It's Time

Sign Joe Mauer Now

Blackburn is extended, I don't hate it

Today the Twins signed their guy to a long-term extension. There were rumors Mauer was going to sign a deal today, but it turns out that Nick Blackburn got the deal instead. He signed a 4 year/$14 million dollar extension with an option for $8 million.

This deal has been largely panned as unnecessary or a disappointment. Fans are upset that Mauer hasn't been signed and/or they just don't feel that Blackburn warrants the contract. There are a few posts on the left side of my blog that will detail this.

His big league numbers:
In 2008, He was 11-11 with a 4.05 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, 4.5 K/9 and a 2.46 K/BB rate.
In 2009, He was 11-11 with a 4.03 ERA, a 1.366 WHIP, 4.3 K/9 and a 2.39 K/BB rate. 

He enters the prime of his career as a consistent pitcher that has done well in big games. He also has a low strikeout rate. His strikeout rate screams to many that he won't be able to sustain the success he has had.

Blackburn was not eligible for free agency for 4 years, so the contract does not buy out any extra years. The contract does give the team salary certainty for the next 4 years. If Blackburn were to keep up his numbers, he'd earn more through arbitration than $14 million. There is a chance his low strikeout rate will end his modest success. There is also a chance he will be able to use his 95 mph top end fastball to coax a few more strikeouts or that his ground-ball  rate will improve and he is able to take advantage of a good defensive infield.

I think the signing has more to do with the Twins big picture than just rewarding Blackburn. I think this contract has more to do with Mauer. The team can continue to show him that they are committed to keeping the team together. this might show Mauer that the team is committed to winning. The team also knows it has contract certainty through 2013 for Blackburn. When trying to meet Mauer's demands and work within the team's budget, the team is in a better position to map out its funds. I'm guessing the team has been working on the extension for awhile and having it done will clear up more time to focus on Mauer.

Today, the Twins guaranteed $14 million to a number 4 starter that didn't need a guarantee. If he performs as well or better than he has, the contract will be a steal, if he performs worse, it is still only $14 million. A former 29th round pick and a presumed good guy got paid today....

As Monty Burns said when Marge painted this portrait of him...."I don't hate this"....

The marriage post

So, it comes down to this, the marriage post:

Tomorrow I am getting married to the person below:

Who was featured here:

Why does one get married? I don't know about the rest of the populous, but look at all of the cool things she has bought me!

Anyway.... It took me 36 years, but finally, I am ready to do it!

Thanks to everyone who has supported this blog and supported me!

To Allison: Thanks for watching all of those baseball games, loving Punto and Danny Valencia, thinking Neshek pitches funny and that the Big Sweat, is, well, big, fat and ugly. Thanks for going to games with me and putting up with all of my crap. Thanks for talking me into starting this blog in the first place. Thanks for being one of its 10 readers. I love you!!!

My anniversary will always be around the start of spring training. It will never cause me to ever miss a game. :)

Again, I love you Allison!

-Shawn

Little Nicky Punto and Iron Maiden?

...It's a time to live, and a time to die, when it's time to meet your maker, it's a time to live, but isn't it strange?, when as soon as your born, your dying......


Iron Maiden "The Clairvoyant" -1988

The frustration is evident. It must be Nick Punto Day!

 I have previously spent time looking over his greatest games. (for some reason) Today, I hope I have the clairvoyance to, um, look into the past! to see why this little man has such a big impact, good and bad, on so many fans.

Many better writers will also be posting about Nick Punto here. You can also search twitter. just type #NickPuntoDay. Check them out over the course of the day. Hopefully they will all hit it out of the park.... ok, slide it into first base. Hopefully they don't get pciked off.

Feel the sweat break on my brow, Is it me or is it shadows that are dancing on the walls, Is this a dream or is it now, Is this a vision or normality I see before my eyes

Nick Punto is the most talked about utility/futility infielder in the history of Twins fan-hood.

I wonder why I wonder how, That it seems the powers getting stronger every day, I feel a strength an inner fire, But I'm scared I won't be able to control it anymore

Such a man has inspired Nick Punto Day amongst Twins bloggers even though he has this a career batting line of just .248/.322/.324.

Just by looking through your eyes, He could see the future penetrating right in through your mind, See the truth and see your lies, But for all his power couldn't foresee his own demise


Baseball-reference.com says these players are most similar to the mighty Punto: Wayne Terwilliger, Chick Fewster, Jeff Reboulet, Chuck Hiller, Ray Morgan, Jack Brohamer, Bobby Young, John Farrell,Danny Murtaugh, and Abraham Nunez. Who the hell are these guys? Well as Twins fans, we know Wayne Terwilliger as the former 1st base coach, who looked about 90, and Jeff Reboulet as one of the teams mid-90s crappy shortstops.

Will 2010 be the end of Punto's Twins run? Why does he matter to so many Twins fans? A .646 OPS screams utility infielder and utility infielders are not often well known guys. Will his power over the fan-base come to an end?

A Time to Live?
Miguel Batista was a former 2 time all star, who'd seen his career fall to the depths of Japan baseball. He was signed in 2006 and anointed the starting third baseman to start the season. In 50 games he had a line of .236/.303/.388. This is not great, but the Twins routinely trot a couple no hit/good glove infielders every year, so, he was middle of the road with the bat.... What's that? He couldn't field? His -13.5 UZR was just horrible. his defense alone would have lost the team more than 2 games. Actually watching him play the field was worse than the numbers. He also had a weird batting stance.

The team started slow. Fans were already wondering if the team would go anywhere in 2006. 2005 had been a disappointment and 2006 had started even worse. Justin Morneau wasn't hitting, the left side of the infield was terrible and the team bottomed out. Then things started to change.....

On June 7th, Seattle, Justin Morneau was benched (he did pinch hit), the team lost in extra innings. The team was 25-33. they would only lose 2 of the next 23. Batista was gone after 4 more games. Punto, fresh off a .239/.301/.335 season in 2005 (mostly at 2b), was tabbed to replace Batista at third. Nick went .290/.352/.373 in 2006 He was useful at the bottom of the lineup and his defense, 17.4 UZR/150 in 89 games at third, was light-years better than Batista. Jason Bartlett became the shortstop the next day. 

The Twins found lightning in a bottle with Morneau, Bartlett, and Punto. They also got a great year from Joe Mauer, Johan Santana had woken from his early season slump, and Francisco Liriano had just started to find his amazing form. Liriano the best pitcher in the MLB in June and July. the darling though, was Punto. He was gritty. He slid into first. He was a little guy. He was a piranha! Punto was joined by Bartlett, Jason Tyner and Luis Castillo as the "piranhas". They were glorified as the plucky little underdogs. They were guys that could beat you by hitting the ball 40 feet and running. They'd take the extra base. They steal. They'd keep biting.... like a piranha. Punto was a plucky folk hero than anything in 2006. It would have been hard to find fans that didn't like him.

A Time to Die
The real reason these blog-posts are being written have as much to do with the events of 2006 as it does 2007. Nick had been signed to a 2 year/4.2 million dollar contract prior to the 2007 season and penciled in at third base. He was only 29 year old. He'd finally come into his own. This contract seemed fine. The team could have just given him a 1 year deal at about 1.8 million, but he'd been a solid player in 2006 and was a popular clubhouse guy. Everything looked fine!

The Twins had been swept in the playoffs in 2006, but expectations were high. Everyone was coming back from a team that went 96-66 except Francisco Liriano and Brad Radke.

The team faltered. Many players had down years. Nick Punto had the biggest statistical drop-off. How much of a drop-off? He had a hitting line of .210/.291/.272 in 536 plate appearances. He was hitting, an even worse, .197/.285/.253 as late as Sept 4th. His defense was still good, but his bat was historically terrible. How bad? His slugging percentage was the lowest of anyone over 200 ABs. It was the lowest of anyone with 400+ ABs since 1992. The worst in 15 years!!!!! His -27.1 Value Over Replacement Player(VORP) was 8.5 runs worse than the next worst player. He was about 6 losses worse than an average player. The Twins never got it together and Gardenhire stubbornly running Punto out there everyday, just made it worse.

Time to Meet your Maker
2008 was a better year. Punto rebounded with a .284/.344/.382 after a slow start. He posted similar numbers to 2006. The Twins were a game 163 loss away from the playoffs.

In December, he was signed to a 2 year contract for 8.5 million dollar contract. The announcement caused my car to almost drive off the road. Really!!? we needed to lock this guy up early? The guy who had had the worst offensive year in the majors in 15 years? We needed to lockup THAT guy? We needed to give him 8+ million? We needed to sign him early? If the team had to sign him, why not wait? Had he signed later in the off-season, he'd have had to take less money. That would have made the move more palatable. Two years was a big deal because he has done better in even numbered years than odd. 2006 and 2008 were much better years than 2005 and 2007. He had been injury prone. Why give the guy that kind of money? Why do it for 2 years?

As soon as your Born your Dying
2009 is Nick Punto in a  capsule. He ended the year at.228/.337/.284. These numbers were close to his career average. On September 1st he was hitting .213/.315/.265. These numbers were nearly as bad as 2007. The team was 67-65, 3.5 games out of first.

....and reborn again?
He ended the year .292/.407/.375, the team ended the year 20-11 and in the playoffs.

Will the rebirth continue in 2010? He is better in contract years and even years.

So, Am I Clairvoyant enough to predict his future?

He will play more games at third base than anyone else in 2010.

He will play good defense (third base is his best defensive position) but not as good as he has in the past.

He will hit better than 2007 and 2009, but not as well as 2006 and 2008.

His option will not be picked up.

As far as will he be back? No Iron Maiden song or Nostradamus could predict this for sure.

He won't make near what he has in 2009 and 2010.

Gardy loves him.

I'm going with nick coming back for 1 year 1.8 million dollars.

I won't like it. My fiance will love it. Many fans will love it and hate it.

There will be a NickPuntoDay Part 2!