Astros 30-21

I started the top 50 Astros prospects almost 3 weeks ago. i have only posted the first 20. I've been slacking. I moved to Texas from NY state in November and have been enjoying this much better winter weather.

Anyway, 50-41 and 40-31 are also available.

The formula for how I came upon this top 50 is included below:

For hitters I used OPS as my control. This is the formula I used: OPS +.025 per level above GCL +/- .025 for every year above or below age 22 by August 2009 + .025 for CF/SS/C + .025 for base stealers. I also perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

For pitchers I used WHIP as my control. This is the formula I used: WHIP -.05 per level above GCL +/- .05 for every year above or below 22 by August 2009 -.2 for starters. I also favored those with high K/9 rates and gave a break to those with higher BABIP (batting average of balls in play), because they may have been unlucky. I perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

I am not completely happy with this list. I relied too much on the formula and it let me down a little. That is the method I used to learn the organization however, and I am following it through.


30. Jonathan Fixler Catcher 6/13/1986.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 19th round out of Indiana U. in 2007. He batted .203/.275/.429 between Lancaster and Corpus Christi. His at-bats have been limited, but he is a catcher with some power. He is also blocked by Jason Castro at the catcher position. If he could improve his OBP he could be a useful major leaguer. Doesn't probably make a regular top 50 but he has power at a premium position.

29. J.R. Towles Catcher 2/11/1984.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 20th round out of North Central JC in TX in 2004. He batted .276/.386/.455 for Round Rock in part time duty. He threw out 27% of would be stealers. He has fair offensive numbers and I'm surprised he isn't used at other positions to get his bat in the lineup. He could be in the mix as a backup catcher in 2010. I met him a couple of weeks ago and he seemed like a nice kid. His autograph is below.

28. Collin DeLome Outfield 12/18/1985.
He was drafted by the Astros out of Lamar, University in 2007. He batted .255/.323/.465 in AA Corpus Christi. He has good power and some speed but needs to improve his average and OBP. The power is there to be a major league corner already.

27. James Van Ostrand 1B/OF 8/7/1984.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 8th round out of Cal Poly in 2006. He batted .283/.364/.469 for AA Corpus Christi. He had a jump in power and improved his OBP and might have had the kind of breakout he'll need to be a good major league player. If he can improve on his 09 he'll be a solid major league bat.

26. Robert Bono Starter 12/12/1988.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 11th round in 2007 out of Waterford, Connecticut. He went 10-8 with a 3.20 ERA in 25 starts/143.1 innings for Lexington, giving up 158 hits while striking out 66 and walking just 19. He's young and already has great control. If he can keep his walk rate down while also improving his K and hit rate some, he would profile as a back of the rotation starter. As a Twins fan, his numbers remind me of Nick Blackburn.

Bono was actually traded to the Florida Marlins in December...... bet he would rank lower than 26th in their system.

25. Rapheal Pio Relief Pitcher 1/9/1988.
He was signed by the Astros out of Quisqueya, Dominican Republic in 2005. He went 1-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 43.1 innings for the Gulf Coast Astros, giving up 33 hits while striking out 41 and walking 10. It will be interesting to see if he can keep his hit rate down as he moves up. If he can, he could be a good middle reliever.

24. Jay Austin Centerfield 8/10/1990.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 2nd round out of North Atlanta HS in 2008. He batted .297/.320/.360 in Lexington, stealing 23 bases in 36 attempts. He's very young and very highly regarded by the organization. He has a lot of speed but is very raw. Lists that account more for upside than track record have him ranked much higher.

23. Polin Trinidad Lefty Starter 11/19/1984.
He was signed by the Astros out of El Selbo, Dominican Republic in 2002. He went 13-10 with a 3.76 ERA in 26 starts/170 innings for AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock, giving up 177 hits while striking out 112 and walking only 35. Good walk rate, could be a 5th starter/long reliever as soon as 2010.

22. Samuel Gervacio Reliever 1/10/1985.
He was signed by the Astros out of Sabana de la Mar, Dominican Republic in 2002. He went 2-2 with a 4.82 ERA in 52.1 innings for AAA Round Rock, giving up 43 hits while striking out 58 and walking 21. He made his MLB debut in 09 going 1-1 with a 2.14 ERA in 21 innings, striking out 25 and walking 8. Was an impressive debut. He needs to work on his control but, could be the future closer.

21. Jack Shuck Outfield 6/18/1987.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 6th round out of Ohio St. in 2008. He batted .315/.389/.403 in Lancaster, stealing 18 bases in 27 attempts. He has good speed (11 triples) and a good contact and walk rate. He doesn't have much power for a corner outfield spot but could be a future leadoff or #2 hitter.

I expect to get the next 10 out sooner than 15 days.

Astros prospects 40-31

Another Installment of Astros prospects. Have learned from Astros'  fans to discount the OPS numbers in High A. Clack, posting at The Crawfish Boxes suggested minorleaguesplits.com, which will be handy in the future. Thanks for the heads up man!

If you missed the 50-41, they can be found here.

The formula for how I came upon this top 50 is included below:

For hitters I used OPS as my control. This is the formula I used: OPS +.025 per level above GCL +/- .025 for every year above or below age 22 by August 2009 + .025 for CF/SS/C + .025 for base stealers. I also perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

For pitchers I used WHIP as my control. This is the formula I used: WHIP -.05 per level above GCL +/- .05 for every year above or below 22 by August 2009 -.2 for starters. I also favored those with high K/9 rates and gave a break to those with higher BABIP (batting average of balls in play), because they may have been unlucky. I perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

40. Ross Seaton Starter 9/18/1989.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 3rd round in 2008 out of Second Baptist (HS) Texas. He went 8-10 with a 3.29 ERA in 24 starts/136.2 innings for Class A Lexington, giving up 137 hits, while striking out 88 and walking 39. He's very young and has shown a 94 MPH fastball and good slider, but if he doesn't improve his hit rate or strikeout rate, he will have to walk less guys to have a shot in an MLB starting staff.
 
39. Brandon Barnes Outfielder 5/15/1986.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 6th round in 2005 out of Cypress College. He batted .273/.322/.471 over 2 A levels and AA. His .523 SLG in hitter friendly Lancaster, over 291 plate appearances, inflated his numbers some. If he can improve his walk rate, he could be a 4th OF or league average MLB corner outfielder.
 
 38. Emilio King Outfielder 8/17/1989.
He was signed by the Astros out of Samana, Dominican Republic in 2006. He batted .254/.399/.384 for the Gulf Coast Astros. He also stole 8 bases in 9 tries. Looks to be very raw, with some speed, gap power, and walks a little, but at 20 years old, he still has time to refine his skills.

37. John Frawley Reliever 11/29/1985.
He was signed by the Astros out of the University of North Florida in 2009. He went 2-0 with a .90 ERA in 20 innings for the Gulf Coast Astros, giving up 18 hits, while striking out 25 and walking 0. There is not a lot to go on so far, but his brief numbers in rookie ball are out of sight. It will be interesting to see how he does against tougher competition. Could be a real find for the organization or just a blip.

36. Enrique Hernandez SS-2B 8/24/1991.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 6th round in 2009 out of American Military Academy in Puerto Rico. He batted .295/.336/.396 for GCL Astros. He stole 8 bases in 10 tries. It was a good debut for a very young player with tools. Has a long way to go but also has a high ceiling.

35. Douglas Arguello Lefty Starter 12/21/1984.
He was signed by the Astros out of Minagua, Nicoragua in 2001. He went 3-4 with a 3.36 ERA in 75 innings for AA Corpus Christi, giving up 70 hits while striking out 55 and walking 26. He doesn't strike out enough and walks too many guys. He might be better suited as a reliever.

34. Chris Johnson Third Base 10/1/1984.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 6th round in 2006 out of Stetson University. He batted .281/.323/.461 for AAA Round Rock. He made his MLB debut in 2009. He has decent power, but needs to improve his discipline. He could be in the mix for the major league roster in 2010.

33. Michael Schurz Reliever 9/12/1986.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 44th round in 2009 out of the University of Iowa. He went 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in 29.2 innings between GCL Astros and Tri-City, giving up 19 hits while striking out 37 and walking 13. Has good hit and K numbers, could be a dominant reliever if he could walk less.

32. Matt Weston First Base 5/20/1984.
He was originally drafted by the Giants in 2006 and spent 2008 in an independent Canadian league. He batted .300/.374/.572 for Class A Lancaster. Showed some nice power in a power-happy league. How he does when he moves up to AA will determine if he has a chance to make the majors some day.

31. Brad Dydalewicz Lefty Starter 3/24/1990.

He was drafted by the Astros in the 8th round in 2008 out of Lake Travis HS in Austin, TX. He went 8-5 with a 3.93 ERA in 22 starts/110 innings for Class A Lexington, giving up 93 hits, striking out 78 and walking 51. He's left handed, throws 95 and not yet 20. Numbers aside, I'd have ranked him higher, but he needs to walk less guys. Having never heard of him until now, i'd say he has a chance to be a future ace, but he has a long road to get to that point.

That's it for now, stay tuned for the next 10.

Catching Up

First things first: Did anyone hear about Mark McGwire? He used steroids or something? Who knew? All along, the talking heads have wanted this guy to apologize. Now that he has apologized he is just getting a new round of scorn. On XM175 this afternoon, Casey Stern didn't think McGwire should be allowed to coach for the Cardinals. Apparently the supposed crimes he committed against baseball should prevent him from being anywhere near the game. Seriously? He did what many others did and it wasn't really discouraged by the game. Did he gain personally? Sure. His he probably given all of that gain back and then some for all of this "outrage"? You bet. My favorite writer Joe Posnanski sums up my feelings best here. After you read that, go buy his books. "The Soul of Baseball" chronicles a year plus he spent on the road with Buck O'Neil and "The Machine" about the 1975 Cincinnati Reds. The O'Neil book may be the greatest book I've ever read.

I am starting a top 50 of Houston Astros prospects here. Or you can check it out at Crawfish Boxes.... The Astros version of Twinkie Town here. The locals there passed on some information about the Astros High A stadium and that entire league. It is such a bandbox, I had to normalize the OPS for that league for future lists. I am ranking their prospects the same way I ranked the Twins.  I spoke about my top ten Twins prospects on Sethspeaks podcast here after Kevin Goldstein talked about his own top 11. John Sickels released his Top 20 Astros list here. The system is not very good, the Twins system has many more high end prospects.

Some other Twins prospect lists:
Baseball America's Top Ten. And Andrew Kneeland's response here.

Josh Johnson is working from 50 down to 1 and is at #38 currently.

Andrew Kneeland just finished his Top 50.

I stole from Seth Speaks latest post a list by Matt from Minor League Baseball Prospects. He posted a Top 40.

There are many more out there to choose from. You can do a google search, look at sites the above posters link to, or the guys I have linked on the left side of my blog.


This blog has been around 5 months now and I'm still getting my feet wet. If this is your first time here, Thank You!! The writing has been inconsistent but, here are a few highlights you might have missed:

The best of Punto. A topic driven post (I didn't have any ideas). I asked my fiance' what she wanted me to write about, she wanted Punto.

My baseball Superstitions.

My best and worst Twins memories.

That's it for now. I will finish up my next Astros prospect list shortly. I will leave you with a signature on a banner at my place of employment.

This is on a 2005 National League Champions banner in my breakroom. Pretty cool!

Astros prospects 50-41

I have decided to tackle the Astros prospect list. I have previously tackled the Twins top 50 prospects here. The Twins are my favorite team, but recently, I have move to Texas and am in the employ of Drayton McLane. Since I am being exposed to the Astros anyway, I figured I might as well learn their prospects. Prospect lists can be found on most any baseball blog this time of year, so I am not breaking new ground here. I have decided to rank the prospects with as little media influence as possible. Prospects are not going to be ranked based on hype but on what they have done since they have entered the Astros organization. Since I don't yet know many of these players, this was a good way to learn the system. I am also not familiar with most of the leagues these teams play, so there is a chance I could have missed some league adjusted finer points. Most of the numbers considered are from the 2009 season.


The formula for how I came upon this top 50 is included below:

For hitters I used OPS as my control. This is the formula I used: OPS +.025 per level above GCL +/- .025 for every year above or below age 22 by August 2009 + .025 for CF/SS/C + .025 for base stealers. I also perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

For pitchers I used WHIP as my control. This is the formula I used: WHIP -.05 per level above GCL +/- .05 for every year above or below 22 by August 2009 -.2 for starters. I also favored those with high K/9 rates and gave a break to those with higher BABIP (batting average of balls in play), because they may have been unlucky. I perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

50. Brian Wabick Reliever 8/3/1987.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 34th round in 2007 out of Oakton Community College. He went 7-3 with a 3.96 ERA in 86.1 innings for Low A Lexington, giving up 87 hits while striking out 66 and walking 21. He had decent numbers and if he could improve his strikeout rate, he could be an effective reliever.

49. Frank Almonte Outfield 1/24/1989.
He was signed in 2006 out of Santiago, Dominican Republic. He batted .246/.314/.428 for Greenville in the Appalachian League. He's shown a little power but needs to improve his walk rate and strikeout rate to have a chance to move very far.

48. Kyle Greenwalt Starter 9/29/1988.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 20th round in 2007 out of Sellersville, PA. He went 8-13 with a 4.20 ERA in 25 starts/139.1 innings for Low A Lexington, giving up 154 hits while striking out 90 and walking 28. Perhaps has a chance at a backend starter.

47. Miguel Arrendell Infield/DH 3/26/1988.
He was signed by the Astros in 2006 out of San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic. He batted .235/.394/.368 for Greenville. He walks a TON. He needs to hit more or for more power. It would help if he could stay playing in the infield.

46. Kyle Godfrey Reliever 2/6/1986.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 13th round in 2008 out of Hiwassee Junior College. He went 1-4 with a 2.81 ERA in 51.1 innings between A ball Tri-City and Lexington, giving up 47 hits while striking out 41 and walking 12. He doesn't give up too many hits or walk too many. He could be a serviceable middle reliever.

45. Marcos Cabral Shortstop/Infield 4/4/1984.
He was drafted by the Mets in the 31st round in 2002 out of Broward Community College. He batted .298/.358/.461 for high A Lancaster. He has decent power and a decent walk rate, but is going to be 26 and just finished a season in High A. He was not successful in small stints above A-ball for Toronto. This will be a big year for Marcos.

44. Patrick Urckfitz Lefty Reliever 7/21/1988.
He was signed by the Astros in 2008 out of Monroe Community College. He went 4-2 with a 2.81 ERA in 57.2 innings between Class A Lexington and Lancaster, giving up 53 hits while striking out 49 and walking 18. He will most likely top out as a LOOGY.

43. Thomas Manzella Shortstop 4/16/1983.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 3rd round in 2005 out of Tulane University. He batted .289/.339/.417 for AAA Round Rock. He made his major league debut in 2009 and should be in the mix for shortstop or as a bench infielder.

42. Kirk Clark Reliever 7/19/1988.
He was signed by the Astros in 2009 out of Creighton University. He went 2-0 with a 189 ERA in 19 innings in Tri-City, giving up 14 hits while striking out 24 and walking 3. Not a lot to go on just yet, but a good start to his pro career.

41. Erik Castro Infield 11/13/1987.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 10th round in 2009 out of San Diego St. He batted .266/.351/.453 for Tri-City. He has a good walk rate and some power. If he improves on both, he could be a decent MLB player in a few years.

That's it for now. The write-ups are pretty general, but this list is stats run anyway.

Comments welcome.