The Sky is NOT Falling!

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The Twins just returned from the road. East coast trip vs. the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Red Sox! The Twins generally do not do well in these venues and this lack of success continue. The team went 2-5 on the trip. While, this is not a great road trip, the sky is NOT falling. Many in the Twins community would tell you otherwise. Fanatic Jack often thinks the sky is falling or worse. The twitterverse has been rife with people ready to write off the season. They are willing to write off the team after every one of the 17 losses and some of the 24 wins.

Are the Twins frauds? Is the 24-17 record a mirage or even that decent of a record?

Well 24-17, played out for a full season comes out to 95-67 record. That would win the division.

The Twins have been accused of playing poor vs the AL West and AL East.

In 2010, they are 3-1 vs. the West, all on the road vs. Anaheim. Nice numbers, but very small sample.

They are 6-8 vs. the East, 2-5 on the road. 4-3 at home. These numbers are nothing to write home about, but no reason to panic.

More numbers: They are 12-11 on the road. Only 3 AL teams have better records on the road. They are 12-6 at home. They have played 5 less games at home. Their opponents winning percentage is .484. So, they are essentially 7 games over .500 against a schedule that is 1 under.

Fans hold up the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels as the teams the Twins must beat. I think the Twins need to beat them at home and play competitive on the road.

There has almost been a lot of stress over Detroit pulling even with the Twins at 24-17. Detroit has a slightly tougher strength of schedule at .495, but not a huge difference over the Twins. Detroit has also played 2 more games at home. They are 14-6 home and 10-11 on the road. Detroit may be tough all year, but going 2-5 against the Eastern division, on the road, has nothing to do with Detroit.

The Twins have scored 30 more runs than they has allowed and have allowed the second fewest runs in the American  League.

What does this all mean?

It means the Twins have been slightly better than average through 41 games of a 162 game season. They have not been great yet but certainly have not been poor.

2010 may not end in a championship, but nothing I have seen so far changes my opinion on this team. The 2010 Twins are a good team. It's only May 21st. Kubel and Cuddyer haven't been hitting and Hardy has been hurt.

Inter-league play has just started. The Twins are very successful, over the years, versus the National League. As I write this, they are up 7-0 vs. Milwaukee in the first inning.

The Twins Are Fine!

Delmon Young Day.... days late

Delmon Young day came and went! I did nothing! Sure, I've had alot going on and alot of stressers in my life, but as a wanna-be Twins writer/blogger guy, it is my job to make sure i weigh in on every opportunity. So, a few days late here we go.

Delmon Young was the #1 pick in the 2003 amateur draft. Generally considered one of the best prospects in the minor leagues in 2004-2006. He was runner up to rookie of the year in 2007 for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He had a decent if unremarkable rookie campaign in his age 21 year. He hit .288/.316/.408 but it was the 93 runs batted in that probably went the furthest in garnering him the runner-up vote for the ROY.

In the winter of 2007, Delmon, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie were sent to Minnesota in exchange for Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan. This trade had all the makings of teams trading off of strength. Tampa had an excess of young OFs and Minnesota an excess of young starting pitching. I was all for the trade at the time, it seemed like a reasonable gamble for a mid-market team looking to compete long term. It hasn't worked out....... YET?

Young was sold to the Twins fans as the next Frank Robinson. Frank went .290/.379/.558 and .322/.376/.529 in his age 20 and 21 year. Young has certainly not attained that success yet.

Garza became a star pitcher. the 2008 ALCS MVP went 11-9 with a 3.70 ERA in 2008 and 8-12 with a 3.95 ERA in 2009. He had a 6.4 WAR in the 2 seasons. He is off to a 5-1 start with a 2.49 ERA this season and considered one of the better pitchers in the AL.

The real surprise has been Bartlett. He batted .289/.326/.389 in 08 and .320/.389/.490 in 2009. He had a 6.7 WAR in the 2 seasons. By contrast Young has gone .290/.336/.405 and .284/.308/.425 the last 2 seasons along with terrible defense providing a WAR of -1.8. And Brendan Harris? Bartlett's replacement has gone .265/.327/.394 and .261/.310/.362 along terrible defense, his 1.3 WAR over the last 2 seasons is still better than Young. Young has been the worst of these four players when he was supposed to be the star!


Coming into 2010, Where does Young go from here?

Young is still only 24. He may be figuring it out a little more at the plate. Always a slow starter, Young is hitting .278/.333/.464 in the early going. His defense in left has gone from horrible to merely slightly below average. By contrast his most common comparable, Michael Cuddyer is hitting .270/.316/.433 while playing awful defense in right field to the tune of a UZR/150 of -28.3.

So, the question has to asked, has Young turned the corner? Is he ready to be a decent player for the team, if not a cornerstone? A mid-market team like the Twins with such a high payroll could look to shed Cuddyer's 11.5 million in 2011. (assuming a team will take it) Is Young ready to replace him in RF and as the primary power righty on the team? His defense in 2007 in right field was pretty decent. Will Gardenhire even play him there. Will Ben Revere be ready enough to come up in 2011, improving the team's outfield defense?

If Young had gotten to a slow start he's probably be on the brink of being let go in favor of a Rene Tosoni or at least buried deep on the bench.

What I can say for certain is that Delomn will not be another Frank Robinson. Frank by the way went .297/.407/.595 in his age 24 year. the following year he won the NL MVP.

Young has a long way to go, but i predict that he will round into a fair bat and a decent RF option assuming Cuddyer is elsewhere in a year or two.

what say you?

You want to crown em?

The Twins are 8-3

I had the Twins being a big deal in 2010 here, and through 11 games they are looking pretty damn good. I'm not ready to crown their asses yet but.....

The team does lead the league in runs scored and fewest runs allowed. The fielding has been excellent.

The middle of the lineup has been fantastic so far.
Joe Mauer is hitting .324/.435/.541
Justin Morneau is hitting .341/.471/.512
Michael Cuddyer is hitting .348/.380/.522
Jason Kubel is hitting .258/.410/.484
Delmon Young is hitting .300/.324/.567

Backup 3b Brendan Harris is hitting .250/.438/.500

The starting pitching has been great:
Carl Pavano is 2-0 .85 WHIP 1.38 ERA
Francisco Liriano is 1-0 1.15 WHIP 2.08 ERA
Scott Baker is 2-1 1.13 WHIP 3.38 ERA

Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier and Jon Rauch have been great out of the bull-pen.

The Twins are 5-2 on the road.
The Twins are 7-3 vs. prospective contenders.
The Twins beat last years Cy Young tonight 10-3. (The game could have been much worse if not for some great plays by the Royals in the field)

It may be early, sample sizes are small, but there is a lot to like so far.

.....And, the 1-2 hitters are just starting to hit....

The Astros have a very nice stadium.... and not much else, join the Twins bandwagon

So, I got the opportunity to see the Astros play the Phillies on Friday. I work for the company that owns the Astros and got some free tickets. I looked at the lineup and stated, "if this game was played 10 times, the Phillies would win 8" I should have said the Phillies would win 11 out of 10. The game was a bloodbath. Carlos Lee was the only starter at his position that was better than the player the Phillies ran out there. Starter Bud Norris, a nice kid who signed the ball below, could not find the plate.

He can touch 94 on his fastball and has an 88 mph slider, but couldn't throw these pitches for strikes. If a guy can't throw strikes the Phillies lineup will kill him. He gave up 6 hits, 4 walks and 3 ERs through 2.2 innings. He managed to throw 82 pitches, only 44 for strike, and burned the a large part of my evening to get 8 outs. His night ended when he walked pitcher Happ. While Norris was brutal, Happ wasn't terribly sharp either, allowing 6 hits and 2 walks,while throwing 103 pitches in 5 innings. He didn't give up any runs, but he was very slow out there. This was probably the slowest moving game I've seen live.

The final score was 8-0 Phillies, but it seemed much worse. The Phillies offense sucked the life out of the stadium very quickly. The game-time was 3:17, but it seemed to take 3 days. The first 4 innings took about two hours. My boss's team is going to have a very long year.

Oh Well! The stadium is really nice, go check it out when you can, hopefully you will get a better game.

If you are an Astros fan, take a year off, join the Minnesota Twins bandwagon, we'd love to have you.

2010 Predictions

Well, the 2010 Season is upon us. It's prediction time: You have come to a Twins blog, so it should be no surprise at the LARGE amount of homer-ism picks. Oh Well! If there was ever a year to go homer, this is the year.




Hopefully I am a smart Homer.

AL East:                    AL Central:               AL West:
Boston        96-66     Minnesota  94-68      Los Angeles  87-75
New York  94-68*   Chicago      85-77     Texas            85-77
Tampa Bay 86-76     Detroit        80-82     Seattle           83-79
Baltimore    76-86     Cleveland    70-92     Oakland        73-89
Toronto      69-93     Kansas City 66-96
ALDS:
Boston over LA Angels 3-1
i think Boston is much deeper.
Minnesota over New York Yankees 3-2
New field, better line-up, home-field due to Wild Card status.

ALCS:
Minnesota over Boston 4-3
Boston has the better pitching but the Twins have the better lineup.

NL East:                    NL Central:               NL West:
Philadelphia  98-64    St. Louis     91-71    Colorado        92-70
Atlanta         85-77     Chicago     84-78    San Francisco  86-76*
Florida         82-80     Milwaukee 81-81    Los Angeles    80-82
New York   77-85     Cincinnati    79-83   Arizona           79-83
Washington  66-96     Pittsburgh   76-86    San Diego       63-99
                                  Houston      68-94
* Wild Card
NLDS:
Philadelphia over San Fransisco 3-0
Halladay beats Lincecum, then it's over.
Colorado over St. Louis 3-2
Colorado has the deeper lineup.

NLCS:
Philly over Colorado 4-0
Philadelphia is the class of the NL.

World Series:
Twins over Phillies 4-3
Twins use that all-star game home field advantage.
Homer-ism reigns supreme

Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
He earns well over his salary for another year. Bank it when he gets old!

Twins Top Pitcher: Kevin Slowey
Something like 18-12 3.30 ERA

Twins Best Rookie: Anthony Slama
If given the chance, he could close the second half of the season.

Twins Most Improved Player: Delmon Young
.310/.335/.470 with 25 SB would be a nice step forward. Maybe he'll walk someday.

Three Keys to Success for the Twins:
Liriano going from terrible to good. A under 4.00 ERA Liriano would go a long way. If he becomes great again, well that's just a bonus.
Slowey a full year healthy. He needs to pitch the full season in order to be 18-12 with that 3.30 ERA.
Slama coming up to seize the closer role. The team needs a closer. I hope it's Slama or Neshek.

Rest of the League Predictions

A.L. MVP: Joe Mauer
Considerations to: Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, Josh Beckett
N.L. MVP: Chase Utley
Considerations to: Troy Tulowitzki, Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez
A.L. Cy Young: Josh Beckett
Considerations to: Kevin Slowey, Zach Greinke, Felix Hernandez
N.L. Cy Young: Roy Halladay
Considerations to: Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum
A.L. Rookie of the Year: Brian Matusz
N.L. Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward
A.L. Breakout Player of the Year: Kevin Slowey
N.L. Breakout Player of the Year: Yovani Gallardo
A.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Fausto Carmona
N.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Tim Hudson

Those are my picks. What are yours?
Check out Josh's post: He is the father of the Twins blog series Predictions:

Heath Bell

I will be discussing the Twins tomorrow morning with DW the great: check it out here at 10 am: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/dwthegreat/2010/03/20/question-marks. Also check out his blog: http://twin-keys.blogspot.com/.

One of the primary topics in Twins Territory is the closer situation. If Joe Nathan can't go, and this weekend we will find out, who should be the Twins closer?

I think it should be this man:

OK, it's been a long time since he's been a B-Met, but I did live in Binghamton for 3+ years.

There are rumors out there that the Twins are interested in Heath Bell and the Padres would want Ben Revere, Aaron Hicks, or Angel Morales. These three gentleman are considered the future Twins OF. It seems unlikely that all three will make the majors with the Twins, but is Bell worth one of these players?

No!

I know I have said I want the Twins to trade for him, but not for Revere or Morales straight up. The Twins wouldn't consider trading Hicks.

Bell at 32 years old has been a very good reliever the last three years and a good closer in 09. He struck out 10.21/9 innings, had a 1.12 WHIP and 2.42 FIP in 2009. His numbers were really good for a closer, but not as good as Joe Nathan. Where Nathan was worth about 2 wins over replacement, Bell was worth about one. One win could be important however and I think the Twins should explore this deal.

Would the Padres take Glen Perkins/Alexi Casilla/Rene Tosoni for Bell? Probably not, they are selling high and they know the Twins are desperate.

The Twins best bet would be to trade Revere. To me, he has less upside than Morales and Hicks. He is fast and is a good contact hitter, but he probably will never develop power and has a weak throwing arm.

I would propose this trade of Bell, Drew Cumberland and cash for Revere and Perkins.

Drew Cumberland was the 46th pick in 2007. He had a .296/.393/.410 line with 19 steals in 22 attempts for Class A Fort Wayne. He is a SS/2b and is only 21 years old.

He would provide decent upside in the middle infield where the Twins are weak.

It would hurt to lose Revere, but to gain a decent, but slightly lesser prospect, plus Bell would be worth it.

Many are pining for Pat Neshek to be the closer. While I'd love to see this, he may not be fully ready to take on the role. Bringing in Bell for 2 years and letting him walk (perhaps receiving draft picks) would strengthen the entire bullpen. Neshek, Guerrier, and Rauch could all setup Bell and would make for a very strong bullpen.

If the Padres want the moon, this won't happen, but if they are willing to get creative, this could benefit the Twins now without a huge drop-off in their future.

It's Time

Sign Joe Mauer Now