Tuesday, September 21, 2010

How does this Twins team stack up?

As the Twins draw near to a playoff berth, the naysayers are going to start coming out of the woodwork bashing Gardy and the team's post-season record. Since 2002, Gardy's teams have won 6 division championships but have gone 6-18 in the playoffs. They have lost 9 playoff games in a row. So, the Twins win in the regular season ,due to a soft schedule, but are no match in the post-season. It is my contention that they haven't been a strong team in the past and this year they are much stronger. I have examined all of the playoff years from 2002-2010 to prove this.

2002 Twins:
Lineup: 2002 < 2010
C AJ .300/.334/.439 < Mauer .331/.407/.473
1b Douggie .261/.365/.392 > Cuddyer .274/.339/.423
2b Rivas .256/.305/.392 < Hudson .273/.340/.377
SS Guzman .273/.292/.385 < Hardy .274/.324/.400
3b Koskie .267/.368/.447 = Valencia .335/.377/.470
RF Cuddyer .259/.311/.429 < Kubel .254/.329/.434
CF Hunter .289/.334/.524 > Span .266/.334/.353
LF Jones .300/.341/.511 >Young .297/.332/.482
DH Ortiz .272/.339/.500 < Thome .276/.408/.619

Bench 2002 > 2010                                                          
Kielty .291/.405/.484                                      Punto .274/.339/.423
Hocking .250/.310/.323                                  Casilla .265/.322/.382
LeCroy .260/.306/.448                                   Repko .214/.298/.342
Mohr .269/.325/.433                                     

Starters: 2002 < 2010
Radke 9-5 4.72 ERA 3.92/4.29 FIP/xFIP < Liriano 14-8 3.44 ERA 2.44/3.08 FIP/xFIP
Mays 4-8 5.38 ERA 4.92/4.73 FIP/xFIP < Pavano 17-11 3.60 ERA 3.92/4.00 FIP/xFIP
Reed 15-7 3.78 ERA 4.40/4.01 FIP/xFIP < Duensing 10-2 2.19 ERA 3.51/3.99 FIP/xFIP
Milton 13-9 4.84 ERA 3.95/4.13 FIP/xFIP > Blackburn 9-10 5.43 ERA 5.04/4.69 FIP/xFIP

Relievers: 2002 = 2010                                                        
Guardado 2.93 ERA 3.46/3.55 FIP/xFIP > Capps 2.61 ERA 3.28/3.95 FIP/xFIP  
Hawkins 2.13 ERA 2.76/3.23 FIP/xFIP            Fuentes 3.16 ERA 4.12/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Santana 8-6 2.99 ERA 2.66/3.35 FIP/xFIP      Crain 2.49 ERA 3.29/4.09 FIP/xFIP
Fiore 3.16 ERA 4.76/5.21 FIP/xFIP                 Rauch 3.27 ERA 3.06/4.26 FIP/xFIP
Lohse 13-8 4.23 ERa 4.77/4.69 FIP/xFIP        Mijares 2.63 ERA 3.71/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Romero 1.89 ERA 3.05/3.56 FIP/xFIP            Guerrier 3.46 ERA 4.52/4.80 FIP/xFIP
Jackson 3.27 ERA 4.02/4.65 FIP/xFIP             Baker 12-9 4.60 ERA 4.01/4.04 FIP/xFIP

The 2010 team is much better than the 2002 team. They are better at 5 positions, much better at catcher and DH and worse at 3 positions, much worse in center field. The top 3 starters are better than 2002. The bullpens are equal with 2002 having a stronger bench.

2003 Twins:
Lineup 2003 < 2010
C AJ .312/.360/.464 < Mauer .331/.407/.473
1b Douggie .300/.360/.464 > Cuddyer .274/.339/.423
2b Rivas .259/.308/.381 < Hudson .273/.340/.377
SS Guzman .268/.311/.365 < Hardy .274/.324/.400
3b Koskie .292/.393/.452 = Valencia .335/.377/.470
RF Jones .304/.333/.464 > Kubel .254/.329/.434
CF Hunter .250/.312/.451 > Span .266/.334/.353
LF Stewart .322/.384/.470 > Young .297/.332/.482
DH LeCroy .287/.342/.490 < Thome .276/.408/.619

Bench 2003 < 2010
Hocking .239/.291/.362         Punto .274/.339/.423                                
Ryan .393/.441/.754 68 PA   Casilla .265/.322/.382                                
Gomez .251/.279/.354           Repko .214/.298/.342
Ford .329/.402/.575 83 PA   

Starters: 2003 < 2010
Santana 12-3 3.07 ERA 3.24/3.57 FIP/xFIP < Liriano 14-8 3.44 ERA 2.44/3.08 FIP/xFIP
Radke 14-10 4.49 ERA 4.33/4.05 FIP/xFIP < Pavano 17-11 3.60 ERA 3.92/4.00 FIP/xFIP
Lohse 14-11 4.61 ERA 4.29/4.27 FIP/xFIP < Duensing 10-2 2.19 ERA 3.51/3.99 FIP/xFIP
                                                                        Blackburn 9-10 5.43 ERA 5.04/4.69 FIP/xFIP

Relievers: 2003 < 2010
Guardado 2.89 ERA 3.23/3.78 FIP/xFIP = Capps 2.61 ERA 3.28/3.95 FIP/xFIP
Hawkins 1.86 ERA 2.38/3.05 FIP/xFIP      Fuentes 3.16 ERA 4.12/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Rincon 3.68 ERA 3.79/4.42 FIP/xFIP         Crain 2.49 ERA 3.29/4.09 FIP/xFIP
Reed 6-12 5.07 ERa 4.76/4.68 FIP/xFIP    Rauch 3.27 ERA 3.06/4.26 FIP/xFIP
Romero 5.00 ERA 5.17/4.88 FIP/xFIP        Mijares 2.63 ERA 3.71/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Rogers 13-8 4.57 ERA 4.25/4.28 FIP/xFIP Baker 12-9 4.60 ERA 4.01/4.04 FIP/xFIP
Milton 2.65 ERA 3.91/4.71 FIP/xFIP

The 2010 team is much better than the 2003 team. They are better at 4 positions, much better at SS and DH and worse at 4 positions, much worse in center field. The top 3 starters, the bullpen and bench are also better than 2003.

2004 Twins:
Lineup: 2004 < 2010
C Blanco .206/.260/.368 < Mauer .331/.407/.473
1b Morneau .271/.340/.536 > Cuddyer .274/.339/.423
2b Cuddyer .263/.339/.440 < Hudson .273/.340/.377
SS Guzman .274/.309/.384 < Hardy .274/.324/.400
3b Koskie .251/.342/.495 < Valencia .335/.377/.470
RF Jones .254/.315/.427 < Kubel .254/.329/.434
CF Hunter .271/.330/.475 > Span .266/.334/.353
LF Stewart .304/.380/.447 < Young .297/.332/.482
DH Ford .299/.381/.446 < Thome .276/.408/.619

Bench: 2004 = 2010
Offerman .256/.363/.395  Punto .274/.339/.423
Rivas .256/.283/.432        Casilla .265/.322/.382
LeCroy .269/.321/.424     Repko .214/.298/.342
Kubel .300/.358/.433

Starters: 2004 > 2010
Santana 20-6 2.61 ERA 2.92/2.95 FIP/xFIP > Liriano 14-8 3.44 ERA 2.44/3.08 FIP/xFIP
Radke 11-8 3.48 ERA 3.55/3.87 FIP/xFIP > Pavano 17-11 3.60 ERA 3.92/4.00 FIP/xFIP
Silva 14-8 4.21 ERA 4.36/4.45 FIP/xFIP < Duensing 10-2 2.19 ERA 3.51/3.99 FIP/xFIP
                                                                    Blackburn 9-10 5.43 ERA 5.04/4.69 FIP/xFIP
Relievers: 2004 < 2010
Nathan 1.62 ERA 2.16/3.17 FIP/xFIP > Capps 2.61 ERA 3.28/3.95 FIP/xFIP
Rincon 2.63 ERA 2.50/2.89 FIP/xFIP        Fuentes 3.16 ERA 4.12/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Balfour 4.35 ERA 3.99/4.23 FIP/xFIP       Crain 2.49 ERA 3.29/4.09 FIP/xFIP
Romero 3.51 ERA 3.63/4.01 FIP/xFIP      Rauch 3.27 ERA 3.06/4.26 FIP/xFIP
Mulholland  5.18 ERA 4.79/4.54 FIP/xFIP Mijares 2.63 ERA 3.71/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Lohse 9-13 5.34 ERA 5.06/4.95 FIP/xFIP Baker 12-9 4.60 ERA 4.01/4.04 FIP/xFIP

The 2010 team is better than the 2004 team. Their lineup is much better in 2010. They are better at 7 positions, much better at catcher and DH and worse at 2 positions, much worse in center field. 2004 had a better #1 and #2 starter. The 2010 bullpen is stronger, other than closer, and the benches are about equal.

2006 Twins:
Lineup 2006 = 2010
C Mauer .347/.429/.507 > Mauer .331/.407/.473
1b Morneau .321/.375/.559 > Cuddyer .274/.339/.423
2b Castillo .296/.358/.370 < Hudson .273/.340/.377
SS Bartlett .309/.367/.393 > Hardy .274/.324/.400
3b Punto .290/.352/.373 < Valencia .335/.377/.470
RF Cuddyer .284/.362/.504 > Kubel .254/.329/.434
CF Hunter .278/.336/.490 > Span .266/.334/.353
LF White .246/.276/.365 < Young .297/.332/.482
DH Tyner .312/.345/.353 < Thome .276/.408/.619

Bench: 2006 < 2010
Ford .226/.287/.312         Punto .274/.339/.423
Rodriguez .235/.315/.322 Casilla .265/.322/.382
Nevin .190/.340/.286        Repko .214/.298/.342

Starters: 2006 < 2010
Santana 19-6 2.77 ERA 3.04/3.12 FIP/xFIP = Liriano 14-8 3.44 ERA 2.44/3.08 FIP/xFIP
Bonser 7-6 4.22 ERA 4.55/4.03 FIP/xFIP < Pavano 17-11 3.60 ERA 3.92/4.00 FIP/xFIP
Radke 12-9 4.32 ERA 4.66/4.55 FIP/xFIP < Duensing 10-2 2.19 ERA 3.51/3.99 FIP/xFIP
                                                                      Blackburn 9-10 5.43 ERA 5.04/4.69 FIP/xFIP


Relievers: 2006 > 2010
Nathan 1.58 ERA 1.68/2.35 FIP/xFIP > Capps 2.61 ERA 3.28/3.95 FIP/xFIP
Crain 3.52 ERA 3.38/3.40 FIP/xFIP       Fuentes 3.16 ERA 4.12/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Neshek 2.19 ERA 2.88/2.28 FIP/xFIP    Crain 2.49 ERA 3.29/4.09 FIP/xFIP
Reyes .89 ERA 2.87/2.80 FIP/xFIP         Rauch 3.27 ERA 3.06/4.26 FIP/xFIP
Rincon 2.91 ERA 2.84/3.59 FIP/xFIP      Mijares 2.63 ERA 3.71/4.58 FIP/xFIP
                                                                Baker 12-9 4.60 ERA 4.01/4.04 FIP/xFIP

The 2010 team is a little better than the 2006 team. The lineups are about equal. They are better at 4 positions, much better at 3b, LF and DH. They are worse at 5, much worse at 1b, RF and CF. 2010 has a better #2 and #3 starter, Liriano's 2010 numbers are close to Santana's Cy Young 06. Brad Radke as a 3rd starter was a shell of his former self and game 3 was his last ever start, due to injury. The 2006 bullpen was stronger at closer and overall, though less overall depth. 2010s bench is much stronger.

2009 Twins
Lineup: 2010 > 2009
C Mauer .365/.444/.587 > Mauer .331/.407/.473
1b Cuddyer .276/.342/.520 > Cuddyer .274/.339/.423
2b Punto .228/.337/.284 < Hudson .273/.340/.377
SS Cabrera .289/.313/.430 < Hardy .274/.324/.400
3b Tolbert .232/.303/.308 < Valencia .335/.377/.470
RF Kubel .300/.369/.539 > Kubel .254/.329/.434
CF Span .311/.392/.415 > Span .266/.334/.353
LF Young .284/.308/.425 < Young .297/.332/.482
DH Morales .311/.381/.361 < Thome .276/.408/.619

Bench: 2010 > 2009
Harris .261/.310/.362  Punto .274/.339/.423
Gomez .229/.287/.337 Casilla .265/.322/.382
Casilla .202/.280/.259  Repko .214/.298/.342

Starters: 2010 > 2009
Duensing 5-2 3.64 ERA 4.13/4.77 FIP/xFIP < Liriano 14-8 3.44 ERA 2.44/3.08 FIP/xFIP
Blackburn 11-11 4.03 ERA 4.37/4.56 FIP/xFIP < Pavano 17-11 3.60 ERA 3.92/4.00 FIP/xFIP
Pavano 14-12 5.10 ERA 4.00/3.96 FIP/xFIP < Duensing 10-2 2.19 ERA 3.51/3.99 FIP/xFIP
                                                                          Blackburn 9-10 5.43 ERA 5.04/4.69 FIP/xFIP

Relievers: 2010 > 2009
Nathan 2.10 ERA 2.88/3.00 FIP/xFIP > Capps 2.61 ERA 3.28/3.95 FIP/xFIP
Guerrier 2.36 ERA 4.35 FIP/4.31 xFIP   Fuentes 3.16 ERA 4.12/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Rauch 3.60 ERA 3.88/4.64 FIP/xFIP      Crain 2.49 ERA 3.29/4.09 FIP/xFIP
Mijares 2.34 ERA 4.01/4.43 FIP/xFIP    Rauch 3.27 ERA 3.06/4.26 FIP/xFIP
Mahay 4.29 ERA 5.56/4.90 FIP/xFIP        Mijares 2.63 ERA 3.71/4.58 FIP/xFIP
Liriano 5-13 5.80 ERA 4.87/4.55 FIP/xFIP   Baker 12-9 4.60 ERA 4.01/4.04 FIP/xFIP

The 2010 team is much better than the 2009 team. They are better at 5 positions, much better at 2b, 3b and DH and worse at 4, especially at catcher where Mauer hasn't lived up to his MVP 09 season. All of 2010s starters are better than 2009. The 2010 bullpen is stronger other than closer and the 2010 bench is better as well.

Looking at the numbers, this 2010 team is Gardenhire's best teams. Other than the 2006 team, no other Gardenhire team has been close to the talent on 2010's squad. The 2006 team was the only squad given a really good chance to win its first round series. Many analysts considered the 2006 team a world series contender. The 2006 team had better middle lineup and top relief core, however 2010's team has much better starting pitching and overall depth. The 2010 team would be able to outlast the 2006 team and would crush the others.

The 2010 team may not go anywhere in the playoffs but will be the best squad Gardenhire has brought to the post-season.

1 comment:

  1. This would be a great comparison, IF we were playing Strat-o-Matic baseball for the post season.

    ReplyDelete