Saturday, January 30, 2010

Astros 30-21

I started the top 50 Astros prospects almost 3 weeks ago. i have only posted the first 20. I've been slacking. I moved to Texas from NY state in November and have been enjoying this much better winter weather.

Anyway, 50-41 and 40-31 are also available.

The formula for how I came upon this top 50 is included below:

For hitters I used OPS as my control. This is the formula I used: OPS +.025 per level above GCL +/- .025 for every year above or below age 22 by August 2009 + .025 for CF/SS/C + .025 for base stealers. I also perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

For pitchers I used WHIP as my control. This is the formula I used: WHIP -.05 per level above GCL +/- .05 for every year above or below 22 by August 2009 -.2 for starters. I also favored those with high K/9 rates and gave a break to those with higher BABIP (batting average of balls in play), because they may have been unlucky. I perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

I am not completely happy with this list. I relied too much on the formula and it let me down a little. That is the method I used to learn the organization however, and I am following it through.


30. Jonathan Fixler Catcher 6/13/1986.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 19th round out of Indiana U. in 2007. He batted .203/.275/.429 between Lancaster and Corpus Christi. His at-bats have been limited, but he is a catcher with some power. He is also blocked by Jason Castro at the catcher position. If he could improve his OBP he could be a useful major leaguer. Doesn't probably make a regular top 50 but he has power at a premium position.

29. J.R. Towles Catcher 2/11/1984.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 20th round out of North Central JC in TX in 2004. He batted .276/.386/.455 for Round Rock in part time duty. He threw out 27% of would be stealers. He has fair offensive numbers and I'm surprised he isn't used at other positions to get his bat in the lineup. He could be in the mix as a backup catcher in 2010. I met him a couple of weeks ago and he seemed like a nice kid. His autograph is below.


28. Collin DeLome Outfield 12/18/1985.
He was drafted by the Astros out of Lamar, University in 2007. He batted .255/.323/.465 in AA Corpus Christi. He has good power and some speed but needs to improve his average and OBP. The power is there to be a major league corner already.

27. James Van Ostrand 1B/OF 8/7/1984.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 8th round out of Cal Poly in 2006. He batted .283/.364/.469 for AA Corpus Christi. He had a jump in power and improved his OBP and might have had the kind of breakout he'll need to be a good major league player. If he can improve on his 09 he'll be a solid major league bat.

26. Robert Bono Starter 12/12/1988.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 11th round in 2007 out of Waterford, Connecticut. He went 10-8 with a 3.20 ERA in 25 starts/143.1 innings for Lexington, giving up 158 hits while striking out 66 and walking just 19. He's young and already has great control. If he can keep his walk rate down while also improving his K and hit rate some, he would profile as a back of the rotation starter. As a Twins fan, his numbers remind me of Nick Blackburn.

Bono was actually traded to the Florida Marlins in December...... bet he would rank lower than 26th in their system.

25. Rapheal Pio Relief Pitcher 1/9/1988.
He was signed by the Astros out of Quisqueya, Dominican Republic in 2005. He went 1-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 43.1 innings for the Gulf Coast Astros, giving up 33 hits while striking out 41 and walking 10. It will be interesting to see if he can keep his hit rate down as he moves up. If he can, he could be a good middle reliever.

24. Jay Austin Centerfield 8/10/1990.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 2nd round out of North Atlanta HS in 2008. He batted .297/.320/.360 in Lexington, stealing 23 bases in 36 attempts. He's very young and very highly regarded by the organization. He has a lot of speed but is very raw. Lists that account more for upside than track record have him ranked much higher.

23. Polin Trinidad Lefty Starter 11/19/1984.
He was signed by the Astros out of El Selbo, Dominican Republic in 2002. He went 13-10 with a 3.76 ERA in 26 starts/170 innings for AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock, giving up 177 hits while striking out 112 and walking only 35. Good walk rate, could be a 5th starter/long reliever as soon as 2010.

22. Samuel Gervacio Reliever 1/10/1985.
He was signed by the Astros out of Sabana de la Mar, Dominican Republic in 2002. He went 2-2 with a 4.82 ERA in 52.1 innings for AAA Round Rock, giving up 43 hits while striking out 58 and walking 21. He made his MLB debut in 09 going 1-1 with a 2.14 ERA in 21 innings, striking out 25 and walking 8. Was an impressive debut. He needs to work on his control but, could be the future closer.

21. Jack Shuck Outfield 6/18/1987.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 6th round out of Ohio St. in 2008. He batted .315/.389/.403 in Lancaster, stealing 18 bases in 27 attempts. He has good speed (11 triples) and a good contact and walk rate. He doesn't have much power for a corner outfield spot but could be a future leadoff or #2 hitter.

I expect to get the next 10 out sooner than 15 days.

No comments:

Post a Comment